Dies Janse

20 yrs · Centre-back · Netherlands
FC Groningen · Eredivisie · Foot: left · Height: 196 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: Very HighContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€6.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€4.8M – €10.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€544k – €3.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€4.3M – €18.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€10.0M – -€1.8M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€4.8M – €10.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€544k – €3.0M
Projected value (24 months)€4.3M – €18.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€6.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Dies Janse's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-3.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.8M-10.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.3M-18.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 57

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average29th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeVery favorable20.5 years
Acquisition costUnfavorableest. €8.3M vs market €6.5M
Expected appreciationVery high+36% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentVery Highbreakout probability 37%
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €6.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2724 (89% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.13
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.13
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
29 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1248
Opponent strength
1292
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Very High
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
37%
Resale range (24m)
€4.3M – €18.8M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +31% (IQR -3% to +52%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
82 (DEF)
Relative output kept
65%–166%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
78%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC GroningenEredivisieCB31272489%220.130.13129212480.43
2024/25Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieCB532911%000.000.03118915050.50

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Knvb BekerFC Groningen19000—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueAjax Amsterdam178001559

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Louis Patris
Jupiler Pro League · 2023
22€3.0M€2.0Mfell
Gabriel Pereira
Liga Portugal · 2024
24€4.0M€6.0Mrose
Eren Elmalı
Super Lig · 2022
22€3.2M€4.0Mrose
Jaka Bijol
Premier Liga · 2022
23€3.5M€10.0Mrose
Tobias Slotsager
Superliga · 2024
18€2.2M€3.0Mrose
Emin Bayram
Jupiler Pro League · 2024
21€4.0M€4.0Mflat
Yukhym Konoplya
Premier Liga · 2021
22€2.5M€4.0Mrose
Bryan Reynolds
Jupiler Pro League · 2023
22€4.0M€3.5Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026FC GroningenAjax U21Free / loan€6.5M
19 Aug 2025Ajax U21FC GroningenFree / loan€900k
1 Jul 2024Ajax U18Ajax U21Unknown€300k
1 Jul 2023Ajax U17Ajax U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2022Ajax YouthAjax U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2020Sparta YouthAjax Youth€28kData unavailable
1 Jul 2018JVOZ YouthSparta YouthFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Kloetinge Yth.JVOZ YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Dies Janse · MoneyballAI