Warren Zaïre-Emery
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Warren Zaïre-Emery's performance-implied value at EUR 32.8M-85.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 59.8M-114.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 60.1M-105.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 29
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 95th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €89.2M vs market €80.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 6% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2454 (80% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.26
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 95 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1818
- Opponent strength
- 1444
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 6%
- Resale range (24m)
- €60.1M – €105M
Trajectory drivers: role change CM -> RB; relative output up 82% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -3% (IQR -29% to +9%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | RB | 32 | 2454 | 80% | 3 | 4 | 0.26 | 0.10 | 1444 | 1817 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 29 | 2052 | 67% | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 1432 | 1812 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 26 | 1962 | 64% | 2 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.15 | 1477 | 1700 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 26 | 917 | 27% | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.13 | 1429 | 1672 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 16 | 1318 | 0 | 1 | 1691 |
| 2025/26 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1580 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Super Cup | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1564 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 13 | 603 | 1 | 0 | 1688 |
| 2024/25 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1584 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 11 | 905 | 1 | 3 | 1680 |
| 2023/24 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1397 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 3 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1842 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Bastoni Serie A · 2021 | 22 | €60.0M | €60.0M | flat |
| David Alaba Bundesliga · 2014 | 22 | €32.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Alphonso Davies Bundesliga · 2023 | 23 | €70.0M | €50.0M | fell |
| Matthijs de Ligt Serie A · 2021 | 22 | €75.0M | €75.0M | flat |
| Marquinhos Ligue 1 · 2017 | 23 | €35.0M | €65.0M | rose |
| Josko Gvardiol Premier League · 2024 | 22 | €75.0M | €70.0M | flat |
| António Silva Liga Portugal · 2023 | 20 | €45.0M | €32.0M | fell |
| Niklas Süle Bundesliga · 2019 | 24 | €60.0M | €35.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Paris SG U19 | PSG | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Paris SG U17 | Paris SG U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | PSG Youth | Paris SG U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Apr 2014 | FCMA Jugend | PSG Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.