Otávio
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Otávio's performance-implied value at EUR 3.3M-13.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.7M-14.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.6M-15.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 30
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 67.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €9.6M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1904 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 67 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1454
- Opponent strength
- 1467
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.6M – €15.7M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level up (+141 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +20% (IQR -29% to +87%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Paris FC | Ligue 1 | CB | 23 | 1904 | 62% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1467 | 1454 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | CB | 20 | 1630 | 53% | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 1301 | 1508 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | CB | 17 | 1380 | 45% | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 1390 | 1321 | 0.58 |
| 2023/24 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | CB | 12 | 1080 | 35% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 1367 | 1628 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | CB | 9 | 708 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1421 | 1362 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | FC Porto | 5 | 410 | 0 | 0 | 1539 |
| 2024/25 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | FC Porto | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1675 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | FC Porto | 2 | 210 | 0 | 1 | 1797 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Cambiaso Serie A · 2023 | 23 | €8.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Mattia De Sciglio Serie A · 2017 | 25 | €8.5M | €14.0M | rose |
| Angelo Ogbonna Serie A · 2013 | 25 | €12.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Mert Müldür Serie A · 2022 | 23 | €7.0M | €4.2M | fell |
| Ghislain Konan Ligue 1 · 2020 | 25 | €5.5M | €7.0M | rose |
| Jordan Amavi Ligue 1 · 2019 | 25 | €8.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Ramy Bensebaini Ligue 1 · 2019 | 24 | €8.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Thierry Correia Laliga · 2024 | 25 | €6.0M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2025 | Porto | Paris FC | €17.0M | €10.0M |
| 31 Jan 2024 | Famalicão | Porto | €12.3M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Flamengo | Famalicão | €500k | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Famalicão | Flamengo | Free / loan | €600k |
| 16 Jan 2023 | Flamengo | Famalicão U23 | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Flamengo U20 | Flamengo | Unknown | €100k |
| 4 Aug 2022 | Sampaio-MA | Flamengo U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 4 Mar 2022 | Flamengo U20 | Sampaio-MA | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.