Nidal Celik
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nidal Celik's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-7.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.0M-14.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.4M-26.6M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 43.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very unfavorable | est. €10.7M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +71% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 58% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 618 (20% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 43 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1569
- Opponent strength
- 1457
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 58%
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.4M – €26.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +143% (IQR +68% to +333%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 618 league minutes last season.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | CB | 8 | 618 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1457 | 1569 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FK Sarajevo | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1364 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeanuël Belocian Ligue 1 · 2023 | 18 | €7.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Dan-Axel Zagadou Bundesliga · 2018 | 19 | €5.0M | €31.5M | rose |
| Leny Yoro Ligue 1 · 2023 | 18 | €10.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| Sinaly Diomandé Ligue 1 · 2022 | 21 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Tiago Djaló Ligue 1 · 2020 | 20 | €4.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Dayot Upamecano Bundesliga · 2017 | 19 | €7.5M | €30.0M | rose |
| Matteo Gabbia Serie A · 2020 | 21 | €2.7M | €6.0M | rose |
| Reece Oxford Bundesliga · 2018 | 20 | €5.0M | €2.3M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2025 | FK Sarajevo | Lens | €2.5M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2024 | Sarajevo U19 | FK Sarajevo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Sarajevo U17 | Sarajevo U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | FK Sarajevo Yth | Sarajevo U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.