Omar El Hilali
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Omar El Hilali's performance-implied value at EUR 4.2M-12.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.3M-16.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.7M-21.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 88
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 64.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €8.4M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 11% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2828 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 65 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1399
- Opponent strength
- 1501
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 11%
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.7M – €21.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -39% to -6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | RB | 36 | 2828 | 83% | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 1501 | 1399 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | RB | 36 | 3159 | 92% | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 1530 | 1411 | 0.95 |
| 2022/23 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | RB | 5 | 89 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1555 | 1382 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 1 | 34 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 1 | 77 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mika Mármol Laliga · 2024 | 23 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Adrià Pedrosa Laliga · 2022 | 24 | €9.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Santiago Bueno Laliga · 2023 | 25 | €8.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Nehuén Pérez Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €13.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Nikola Milenković Serie A · 2022 | 25 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Fernando Calero Laliga · 2019 | 24 | €10.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Waldemar Anton Bundesliga · 2018 | 22 | €12.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Jorge Cuenca Laliga · 2022 | 23 | €8.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2023 | RCD Espanyol B | Espanyol | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Espanyol U18 | RCD Espanyol B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Espanyol Youth | Espanyol U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.