Felipe Augusto
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Felipe Augusto's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-6.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.8M-23.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.9M-21.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.75x the positional average in the league (2202 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 26
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 45.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €17.2M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 14% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2202 (72% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.53
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.40
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 45 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1368
- Opponent strength
- 1266
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 14%
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.9M – €21.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 20 pts; changed club; league level down (-105 Elo); role change ST -> SS.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +14% (IQR -37% to +135%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | SS | 32 | 2202 | 72% | 13 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.40 | 1266 | 1368 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 25 | 1390 | 51% | 2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.34 | 1372 | 1361 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 9 | 444 | 16% | 1 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.48 | 1345 | 1394 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Cercle Brugge | 4 | 169 | 0 | 0 | 1473 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Cercle Brugge | 2 | 119 | 1 | 0 | 1332 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massimo Bruno Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 21 | €8.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Andreas Schjelderup Superliga · 2024 | 20 | €10.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Yari Verschaeren Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 21 | €13.0M | €8.5M | fell |
| Danylo Sikan Premier Liga · 2024 | 23 | €7.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Manfred Ugalde Eredivisie · 2024 | 22 | €7.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Gustav Isaksen Superliga · 2023 | 22 | €7.5M | €20.0M | rose |
| Michel-Ange Balikwisha Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 21 | €4.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Noa Lang Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 23 | €22.0M | €18.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2025 | Cercle Brugge | Trabzonspor | €5.0M | €2.2M |
| 6 Jan 2024 | Corinthians | Cercle Brugge | €3.0M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Corinthians U20 | Corinthians | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Corinthians U17 | Corinthians U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.