Matteo Prati
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matteo Prati's performance-implied value at EUR 3.1M-9.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.2M-7.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.8M-10.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.17x the positional average in the league (1889 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 50
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 50.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €5.5M vs market €5.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 20% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1889 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 50 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1390
- Opponent strength
- 1480
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 20%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.8M – €10.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 38 pts; relative output up 63% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -8% (IQR -58% to +92%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | DM | 20 | 1273 | 37% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 1480 | 1376 | 0.93 |
| 2025/26 | Torino FC | Serie A | DM | 13 | 616 | 18% | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 1496 | 1419 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | DM | 12 | 573 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1465 | 1368 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | DM | 26 | 1973 | 58% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 1477 | 1349 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 2 | 111 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 2 | 113 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Moutoussamy Ligue 1 · 2019 | 23 | €5.0M | €750k | fell |
| Denis Huseinbasic Bundesliga · 2024 | 23 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Yves Bissouma Ligue 1 · 2018 | 22 | €8.0M | €9.5M | flat |
| Valentin Rongier Ligue 1 · 2017 | 23 | €3.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Jens Cajuste Ligue 1 · 2023 | 24 | €6.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Godfred Donsah Serie A · 2018 | 22 | €10.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Gabriel Silva Serie A · 2016 | 25 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Ibrahim Sangaré Ligue 1 · 2018 | 21 | €5.0M | €9.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Torino | Cagliari | Free / loan | €5.5M |
| 30 Jan 2026 | Cagliari | Torino | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 17 Aug 2023 | SPAL | Cagliari | €5.9M | €1.0M |
| 27 Jul 2022 | Ravenna | SPAL | €55k | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Ravenna Jun. | Ravenna | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | RFC Academy | Ravenna Jun. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | AC Cesena Youth | RFC Academy | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.