Davide Bartesaghi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Davide Bartesaghi's performance-implied value at EUR 5.9M-32.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 18.7M-33.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 16.0M-51.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.45x the positional average in the league (2443 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 56
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 71.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €28.4M vs market €22.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 33% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2443 (71% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 72 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1570
- Opponent strength
- 1502
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 33%
- Resale range (24m)
- €16.0M – €51.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +1% (IQR -43% to +19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AC Milan | Serie A | LM | 31 | 2443 | 71% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 1502 | 1570 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | AC Milan | Serie A | LB | 4 | 118 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1299 | 1625 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | AC Milan | Serie A | LB | 6 | 74 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1416 | 1625 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 2 | 93 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 2 | 27 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1574 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1676 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicola Zalewski Serie A · 2023 | 21 | €20.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Beñat Turrientes Laliga · 2024 | 22 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Gonzalo Villar Serie A · 2021 | 23 | €15.0M | €2.8M | fell |
| Martín Zubimendi Laliga · 2021 | 22 | €20.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Billy Gilmour Premier League · 2024 | 23 | €18.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Rodrigo Bentancur Serie A · 2019 | 22 | €35.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Boubakary Soumaré Ligue 1 · 2020 | 21 | €24.5M | €25.0M | flat |
| Maxence Caqueret Ligue 1 · 2021 | 21 | €17.0M | €25.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Milan Futuro | AC Milan | Unknown | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Milan U20 | Milan Futuro | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Milan U17 | Milan U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | AC Milan Youth | Milan U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.