Jorrel Hato
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jorrel Hato's performance-implied value at EUR 12.6M-38.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 27.7M-61.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 22.7M-57.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 16
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 84.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €48.6M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 5% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1143 (33% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 84 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1615
- Opponent strength
- 1641
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 5%
- Resale range (24m)
- €22.7M – €57.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 51 pts; changed club; team strength up (+110 Elo); league level up (+297 Elo); relative output down 53% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +15% (IQR -14% to +52%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1143 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | LB | 22 | 1143 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1641 | 1615 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | LB | 31 | 2592 | 85% | 2 | 6 | 0.28 | 0.14 | 1303 | 1505 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 33 | 2962 | 97% | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 1345 | 1439 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | LB | 11 | 608 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1393 | 1593 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 4 | 340 | 0 | 0 | 1576 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 4 | 330 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 11 | 881 | 0 | 0 | 1550 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 6 | 532 | 1 | 0 | 1428 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 6 | 540 | 0 | 1 | 1526 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1422 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 166 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Fofana Premier League · 2022 | 22 | €40.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| José Gayà Laliga · 2016 | 21 | €18.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Luke Shaw Premier League · 2015 | 20 | €21.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Unai Núñez Laliga · 2019 | 22 | €15.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Dayot Upamecano Bundesliga · 2019 | 21 | €30.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Tyrell Malacia Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €22.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Ibrahima Konaté Bundesliga · 2020 | 21 | €40.5M | €40.0M | flat |
| Takehiro Tomiyasu Premier League · 2022 | 24 | €25.0M | €35.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2025 | Ajax | Chelsea | €44.2M | €35.0M |
| 5 May 2023 | Ajax U21 | Ajax | Unknown | €2.5M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Ajax U18 | Ajax U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Ajax U17 | Ajax U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Ajax Youth | Ajax U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Sparta Youth | Ajax Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.