Mamadou Sarr
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mamadou Sarr's performance-implied value at EUR 4.1M-19.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 17.1M-31.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 11.9M-35.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 44
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 65.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €23.6M vs market €22.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 13% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1406 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 65 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1510
- Opponent strength
- 1486
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 13%
- Resale range (24m)
- €11.9M – €35.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 36 pts; relative output down 36% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +3% (IQR -17% to +35%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1406 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CB | 15 | 1305 | 43% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1486 | 1502 | 0.88 |
| 2025/26 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CB | 3 | 101 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1862 | 1615 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CB | 27 | 2368 | 77% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1457 | 1506 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | RWD Molenbeek | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 6 | 540 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1402 | 1214 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CB | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1397 | 1521 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CB | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1456 | 1549 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Senegal | 3 | 201 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1342 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 2 | 148 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1792 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malang Sarr Ligue 1 · 2018 | 19 | €15.0M | €16.0M | flat |
| Benjamin Henrichs Bundesliga · 2018 | 21 | €12.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Mattia De Sciglio Serie A · 2014 | 22 | €12.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Benoît Badiashile Ligue 1 · 2022 | 21 | €30.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Malo Gusto Ligue 1 · 2023 | 20 | €25.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Kiliann Sildillia Bundesliga · 2024 | 22 | €15.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Unai Núñez Laliga · 2019 | 22 | €15.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| José Gayà Laliga · 2016 | 21 | €18.0M | €35.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2026 | R. Strasbourg | Chelsea | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 1 Aug 2025 | Chelsea | R. Strasbourg | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 9 Jun 2025 | R. Strasbourg | Chelsea | €14.0M | €20.0M |
| 22 Aug 2024 | Lyon | R. Strasbourg | €10.0M | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | RWDM | Lyon | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 18 Jan 2024 | Lyon | RWDM | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Olymp. Lyon B | Lyon | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Olymp. Lyon B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Olymp. Lyon U17 | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Ol. Lyon Yth. | Olymp. Lyon U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Lens Yth. | Ol. Lyon Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.