Guillaume Restes
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Guillaume Restes's performance-implied value at EUR 6.1M-24.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.1M-27.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 11.1M-27.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 51
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 72.7th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €18.9M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 13% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2940 (96% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 73 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1442
- Opponent strength
- 1480
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 13%
- Resale range (24m)
- €11.1M – €27.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +27% (IQR -2% to +85%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | GK | 33 | 2940 | 96% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1480 | 1442 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | GK | 29 | 2545 | 83% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1456 | 1437 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1478 | 1437 | 0.87 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | FC Toulouse | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1664 |
| 2023/24 | Trophee Des Champions | FC Toulouse | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1720 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alban Lafont Ligue 1 · 2020 | 21 | €11.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Bartłomiej Drągowski Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €16.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Emil Audero Serie A · 2019 | 22 | €15.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Mattia Perin Serie A · 2014 | 22 | €10.0M | €17.5M | rose |
| Paul Bernardoni Ligue 1 · 2019 | 22 | €9.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Lucas Chevalier Ligue 1 · 2024 | 23 | €25.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma Serie A · 2017 | 18 | €25.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| Noah Atubolu Bundesliga · 2024 | 22 | €10.0M | €25.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Toulouse B | Toulouse | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Toulouse U19 | Toulouse B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Toulouse FC U17 | Toulouse U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Toulouse For. | Toulouse FC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.