Noah Atubolu
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Noah Atubolu's performance-implied value at EUR 10.1M-29.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.6M-26.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.3M-40.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 89
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 84.9th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €15.4M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3060 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 85 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1551
- Opponent strength
- 1486
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.3M – €40.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 25 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +12% (IQR -8% to +29%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1486 | 1551 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | GK | 26 | 2308 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1473 | 1505 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1503 | 1481 | 1.01 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 14 | 1260 | 0 | 0 | 1490 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 10 | 930 | 0 | 0 | 1522 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1499 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Chevalier Ligue 1 · 2024 | 23 | €25.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Mike Maignan Ligue 1 · 2019 | 24 | €17.5M | €25.0M | rose |
| Unai Simón Laliga · 2021 | 24 | €20.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Thomas Strakosha Serie A · 2020 | 25 | €20.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Jordan Pickford Premier League · 2018 | 24 | €30.0M | €28.0M | flat |
| Álex Remiro Laliga · 2021 | 26 | €20.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Anthony Lopes Ligue 1 · 2015 | 25 | €10.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| Bernd Leno Bundesliga · 2014 | 22 | €18.0M | €16.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2021 | SC Freiburg II | Freiburg | Unknown | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | SC Freiburg U19 | SC Freiburg II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | SC Freiburg U17 | SC Freiburg U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Freiburg Yth. | SC Freiburg U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Freib. FC Yth. | Freiburg Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.