André Luiz
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates André Luiz's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-2.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.7M-8.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.8M-8.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.61x the positional average in the league (1793 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 35
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 39.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €5.4M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1793 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.70
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.72
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 40 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1302
- Opponent strength
- 1312
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.8M – €8.2M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+73 Elo); relative output up 68% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -38% to +1%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1793 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | RW | 19 | 1501 | 49% | 7 | 6 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 1312 | 1254 | 0.58 |
| 2025/26 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | RW | 5 | 292 | 12% | 0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.19 | 1177 | 1550 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | RW | 16 | 1182 | 39% | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.31 | 1315 | 1270 | 0.51 |
| 2024/25 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | RW | 11 | 642 | 21% | 1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.62 | 1399 | 1152 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | ST | 27 | 1191 | 39% | 4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.54 | 1354 | 1185 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 2 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1654 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hyun-jun Suk Liga Portugal · 2016 | 25 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Arbër Zeneli Eredivisie · 2019 | 24 | €6.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Mohammad Mohebi Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 25 | €3.5M | €800k | fell |
| Lyle Foster Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 23 | €9.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Steven Berghuis Eredivisie · 2015 | 24 | €3.5M | €5.5M | rose |
| Griffin Yow Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 22 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Alireza Jahanbakhsh Eredivisie · 2017 | 24 | €5.5M | €15.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2026 | Rio Ave | Olympiacos | €6.8M | €4.0M |
| 23 Jan 2025 | Estrela Amadora | Rio Ave | €2.2M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Flamengo | Estrela Amadora | €600k | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Estrela Amadora | Flamengo | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Flamengo | Estrela Amadora | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Flamengo U20 | Flamengo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2020 | America-RJ U20 | Flamengo U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.