Pio Esposito
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pio Esposito's performance-implied value at EUR 10.7M-52.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 35.5M-65.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 29.9M-84.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.69x the positional average in the league (1560 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 21
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 84.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €51.5M vs market €45.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 8% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1560 (46% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.64
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.35
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 85 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1722
- Opponent strength
- 1464
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 8%
- Resale range (24m)
- €29.9M – €84.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +41% (IQR +11% to +91%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1560 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Inter Milan | Serie A | ST | 35 | 1560 | 46% | 7 | 4 | 0.63 | 0.35 | 1464 | 1722 | 0.93 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 9 | 518 | 2 | 2 | 1560 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 4 | 187 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Spezia Calcio | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferran Torres Laliga · 2023 | 23 | €30.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Rafael Leão Serie A · 2021 | 22 | €25.0M | €90.0M | rose |
| Álvaro Morata Serie A · 2016 | 24 | €30.0M | €65.0M | rose |
| Ola John Liga Portugal · 2013 | 21 | €11.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Bradley Barcola Ligue 1 · 2024 | 22 | €50.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Rodrygo Laliga · 2022 | 21 | €60.0M | €110M | rose |
| Karim Adeyemi Bundesliga · 2024 | 22 | €28.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Moise Kean Serie A · 2022 | 22 | €24.0M | €14.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jun 2025 | Spezia Calcio | Inter | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 1 Aug 2023 | Inter | Spezia Calcio | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Inter U19 | Inter | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Inter U17 | Inter U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Inter Youth | Inter U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Brescia Youth | Inter Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.