Lamine Yamal
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lamine Yamal's performance-implied value at EUR 56.9M-223.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 146.5M-314.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 88.1M-223.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.33x the positional average in the league (2270 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 2
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 99.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 19 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €270M vs market €200M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 18% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2270 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 1.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.52
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 100 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1787
- Opponent strength
- 1475
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 18%
- Resale range (24m)
- €88.1M – €223M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 17 pts; relative output up 37% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +13% (IQR -10% to +50%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | RW | 28 | 2270 | 66% | 16 | 12 | 1.11 | 0.52 | 1475 | 1787 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | RW | 35 | 2864 | 84% | 9 | 15 | 0.75 | 0.42 | 1501 | 1792 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | RW | 37 | 2196 | 64% | 5 | 7 | 0.49 | 0.35 | 1471 | 1723 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | LW | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 1541 | 1696 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 10 | 874 | 6 | 4 | 1628 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 5 | 450 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Spain | 3 | 140 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 2 | 108 | 0 | 0 | 1718 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 13 | 1103 | 5 | 4 | 1672 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 5 | 464 | 2 | 6 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 2 | 122 | 2 | 0 | 1746 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 10 | 579 | 0 | 2 | 1618 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 1 | 105 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 2 | 77 | 1 | 0 | 1577 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jadon Sancho Bundesliga · 2020 | 20 | €117M | €75.0M | fell |
| Kylian Mbappé Ligue 1 · 2019 | 21 | €200M | €160M | fell |
| Vinicius Junior Laliga · 2022 | 22 | €100M | €180M | rose |
| Erling Haaland Bundesliga · 2022 | 22 | €150M | €180M | rose |
| Raheem Sterling Premier League · 2018 | 24 | €90.0M | €128M | rose |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Serie A · 2023 | 22 | €85.0M | €90.0M | flat |
| Marcus Rashford Premier League · 2020 | 23 | €64.0M | €60.0M | flat |
| Eden Hazard Premier League · 2013 | 22 | €40.0M | €70.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Barça U19 | Barcelona | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Barça U16 | Barça U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Barça Youth | Barça U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Torreta Yth. | Barça Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.