Chema Andrés
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Chema Andrés's performance-implied value at EUR 5.8M-18.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 16.4M-31.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 14.3M-54.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.35x the positional average in the league (1306 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 63
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 66.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €23.6M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 43% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1306 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 67 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1567
- Opponent strength
- 1469
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 43%
- Resale range (24m)
- €14.3M – €54.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +37% (IQR +11% to +69%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1306 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | DM | 25 | 1306 | 43% | 3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.17 | 1469 | 1567 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Real Madrid | Laliga | CM | 2 | 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1421 | 1764 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 507 | 1 | 0 | 1473 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 39 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1760 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maghnes Akliouche Ligue 1 · 2024 | 22 | €25.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Merlin Röhl Bundesliga · 2024 | 22 | €12.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Dennis Geiger Bundesliga · 2020 | 22 | €11.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Bundesliga · 2015 | 20 | €6.5M | €8.0M | rose |
| Elvis Rexhbecaj Bundesliga · 2019 | 22 | €8.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Brajan Gruda Bundesliga · 2024 | 20 | €20.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Christoph Baumgartner Bundesliga · 2020 | 21 | €5.4M | €22.0M | rose |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek Premier League · 2018 | 22 | €15.0M | €24.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jul 2025 | RM Castilla | Stuttgart | €3.0M | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Real Madrid U19 | RM Castilla | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Real Madrid U18 | Real Madrid U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Real Madrid U17 | Real Madrid U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | R.Madrid Yth. | Real Madrid U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Levante UD Yout | R.Madrid Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.