Santiago Mouriño
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Santiago Mouriño's performance-implied value at EUR 4.5M-14.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 14.4M-27.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 11.1M-31.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 33
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 72.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €21.2M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2384 (70% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 72 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1544
- Opponent strength
- 1472
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €11.1M – €31.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 16 pts; changed club; team strength up (+127 Elo); role change CB -> RB.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +5% (IQR -11% to +48%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | RB | 28 | 2384 | 70% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 1472 | 1544 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | CB | 25 | 1848 | 54% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1555 | 1418 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Villarreal CF | 6 | 533 | 0 | 0 | 1604 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dani Vivian Laliga · 2023 | 24 | €14.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Wilfried Singo Ligue 1 · 2024 | 24 | €25.0M | €23.0M | flat |
| Loïc Badé Laliga · 2024 | 24 | €14.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Adrien Truffert Ligue 1 · 2024 | 23 | €18.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Bryan Cristante Serie A · 2021 | 26 | €18.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Igor Zubeldia Laliga · 2023 | 26 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Jonathan Tah Bundesliga · 2018 | 22 | €30.0M | €29.5M | flat |
| Davide Calabria Serie A · 2021 | 25 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2025 | Atlético | Villarreal | €10.0M | €3.0M |
| 31 Jul 2025 | Alavés | Atlético | €4.0M | €3.0M |
| 27 Aug 2024 | Atlético | Alavés | €2.0M | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Real Zaragoza | Atlético | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 11 Aug 2023 | Atlético | Real Zaragoza | Free / loan | €500k |
| 4 Jul 2023 | Racing Club | Atlético | €2.7M | €500k |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Nacional U19 | Racing Club | €540k | €25k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.