Ümit Akdağ
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ümit Akdağ's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.2M-9.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.3M-13.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 69
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 32.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €6.1M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 26% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2624 (86% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 32 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1229
- Opponent strength
- 1279
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 26%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.3M – €13.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 69 pts; changed club; team strength down (-208 Elo); league level down (-197 Elo); relative output up 69% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +29% (IQR +7% to +52%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 30 | 2624 | 86% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 1279 | 1229 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | CB | 9 | 503 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1516 | 1437 | 0.88 |
| 2022/23 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 1 | 45 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1356 | 1261 | 0.50 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eren Elmalı Super Lig · 2022 | 22 | €3.2M | €4.0M | rose |
| Gabriel Pereira Liga Portugal · 2024 | 24 | €4.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Furkan Bayır Super Lig · 2023 | 23 | €2.8M | €1.5M | fell |
| Bünyamin Balcı Super Lig · 2021 | 21 | €3.4M | €4.0M | flat |
| Vanja Drkusic Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Yukhym Konoplya Premier Liga · 2021 | 22 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Jaka Bijol Premier Liga · 2022 | 23 | €3.5M | €10.0M | rose |
| Valentin Rosier Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €7.5M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | Toulouse | Alanyaspor | Free / loan | €600k |
| 23 Aug 2024 | Alanyaspor | Toulouse | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Göztepe | Alanyaspor | Free / loan | €800k |
| 28 Jul 2023 | Alanyaspor | Göztepe | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Alanyaspor U19 | Alanyaspor | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 4 Nov 2021 | Alanyaspor Yth | Alanyaspor U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Oct 2017 | Chelsea Youth | Alanyaspor Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2015 | FCSB Yth. | Chelsea Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.