Mats Rots
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mats Rots's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-4.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.7M-19.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.7M-26.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 52
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 41.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €14.8M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 44% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2955 (97% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.24
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 41 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1403
- Opponent strength
- 1294
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 44%
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.7M – €26.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 53 pts; changed club; team strength up (+196 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +10% (IQR -24% to +17%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | LB | 34 | 2955 | 97% | 4 | 4 | 0.24 | 0.14 | 1294 | 1403 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | LB | 15 | 1318 | 43% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 1316 | 1207 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | LB | 1 | 69 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1216 | 1466 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 3 | 286 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 2 | 210 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Twente Enschede | 1 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 1627 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Twente Enschede | 3 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1480 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Evgenjev Premier Liga · 2021 | 22 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Aleksandr Silyanov Premier Liga · 2023 | 22 | €5.5M | €6.0M | flat |
| Yasin Özcan Super Lig · 2024 | 18 | €4.5M | €5.0M | flat |
| Bjorn Meijer Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 20 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Jorrel Hato Eredivisie · 2024 | 18 | €30.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Sacha Boey Super Lig · 2023 | 23 | €16.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Marcão Liga Portugal · 2019 | 23 | €4.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Otávio Liga Portugal · 2024 | 22 | €13.0M | €10.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | FC Twente | Hoffenheim | €12.0M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Heracles Almelo | FC Twente | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 17 Jan 2025 | FC Twente | Heracles Almelo | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | FC Twente U21 | FC Twente | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Twente U18 | FC Twente U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2022 | FC Twente Youth | Twente U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.