Diego Rodrigues
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Diego Rodrigues's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-5.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.6M-11.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-19.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.01x the positional average in the league (849 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 43.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €5.9M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 45% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 849 (28% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.42
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 43 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1533
- Opponent strength
- 1309
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 45%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.4M – €19.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +202% (IQR +0% to +777%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 849 league minutes last season.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | CM | 20 | 849 | 28% | 1 | 3 | 0.42 | 0.22 | 1309 | 1533 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | CM | 8 | 155 | 5% | 0 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.23 | 1387 | 1478 | 0.51 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 9 | 207 | 0 | 1 | 1506 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Braga | 3 | 106 | 0 | 0 | 1273 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristijan Bistrovic Premier Liga · 2019 | 21 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Mykola Shaparenko Premier Liga · 2019 | 21 | €3.5M | €8.0M | rose |
| Mario Stroeykens Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 19 | €3.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Matt O'Riley Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 22 | €2.3M | €20.0M | rose |
| Georgiy Sudakov Premier Liga · 2022 | 20 | €1.5M | €35.0M | rose |
| André Horta Liga Portugal · 2018 | 22 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Matheus Nunes Liga Portugal · 2021 | 23 | €5.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Boschilia Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 20 | €4.0M | €4.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2025 | Braga B | Braga | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jun 2023 | Braga U19 | Braga B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jun 2022 | Braga U17 | Braga U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jun 2021 | Palmeiras U17 | Braga U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Vitória SC U15 | Palmeiras U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jun 2018 | Vitória SC Yth | Vitória SC U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2016 | Taipas Y | Vitória SC Yth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.