Jon Martín
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jon Martín's performance-implied value at EUR 5.1M-28.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.1M-36.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 16.0M-40.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 30
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 63.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €32.4M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 22% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2250 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 63 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1462
- Opponent strength
- 1486
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 22%
- Resale range (24m)
- €16.0M – €40.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 39 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -14% to +59%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | CB | 25 | 2250 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1486 | 1462 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | CB | 13 | 900 | 26% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 1553 | 1464 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | CB | 1 | 23 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1516 | 1588 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 7 | 600 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 3 | 225 | 0 | 0 | 1502 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanderson Ligue 1 · 2023 | 22 | €20.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Giorgio Scalvini Serie A · 2023 | 20 | €40.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Manu Sánchez Laliga · 2022 | 22 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Boubacar Kamara Ligue 1 · 2019 | 20 | €18.0M | €37.0M | rose |
| Dayot Upamecano Bundesliga · 2018 | 20 | €30.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Luca Netz Bundesliga · 2024 | 21 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Perr Schuurs Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €25.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Koni De Winter Serie A · 2024 | 22 | €12.0M | €23.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Real Sociedad B | Real Sociedad | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | R. Sociedad U19 | Real Sociedad B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Real Sociedad Y | R. Sociedad U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Beasain U19 | Real Sociedad Y | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Real Sociedad Y | Beasain U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.