Javi Rodríguez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Javi Rodríguez's performance-implied value at EUR 8.1M-23.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.8M-24.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.6M-27.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 47
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 76.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €19.4M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2561 (75% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 76 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1498
- Opponent strength
- 1491
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €10.6M – €27.9M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 70% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -31% to +89%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CB | 33 | 2561 | 75% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1491 | 1498 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CB | 36 | 2513 | 73% | 3 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.16 | 1511 | 1476 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Celta de Vigo | 12 | 952 | 0 | 1 | 1522 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 4 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Santos Ligue 1 · 2024 | 22 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Melvin Bard Ligue 1 · 2024 | 24 | €12.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Sebastiaan Bornauw Bundesliga · 2022 | 23 | €10.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Dani Vivian Laliga · 2023 | 24 | €14.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Çağlar Söyüncü Bundesliga · 2018 | 22 | €18.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Facundo Medina Ligue 1 · 2022 | 23 | €11.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Niklas Stark Bundesliga · 2019 | 24 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Jorge Cuenca Laliga · 2022 | 23 | €8.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Celta Fortuna | Celta de Vigo | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Gran Peña | Celta Vigo B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Celta U19 | Gran Peña | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Celta Vigo Yth. | Celta U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.