Louis Leroux
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Louis Leroux's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-7.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.7M-16.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.2M-22.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.78x the positional average in the league (1444 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 74
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 40.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €10.5M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 35% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1444 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.31
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 40 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1304
- Opponent strength
- 1496
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 35%
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.2M – €22.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 21 pts; relative output down 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +41% (IQR +18% to +118%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1444 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | AM | 23 | 1444 | 47% | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.31 | 1496 | 1304 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | AM | 16 | 813 | 27% | 2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 1434 | 1357 | 0.88 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolò Rovella Serie A · 2022 | 21 | €10.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Lucas Gourna-Douath Ligue 1 · 2022 | 19 | €10.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Khéphren Thuram Ligue 1 · 2021 | 20 | €9.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Ludovic Blas Ligue 1 · 2018 | 20 | €5.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni Ligue 1 · 2020 | 20 | €15.5M | €60.0M | rose |
| Bruno Fernandes Serie A · 2015 | 21 | €6.5M | €7.5M | flat |
| Yves Bissouma Ligue 1 · 2018 | 22 | €8.0M | €9.5M | flat |
| Zaydou Youssouf Ligue 1 · 2022 | 23 | €4.0M | €5.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | FC Nantes U19 | FC Nantes | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | FC Nantes U17 | FC Nantes U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | FC Nantes Yth. | FC Nantes U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.