Monchu
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Monchu's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-1.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-5.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.81x the positional average in the league (1557 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract ends within 6 months: can sign a pre-contract; small or no fee.
Bargain Index: 70
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 39.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €302k vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -40% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1557 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 39 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 8)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1255
- Opponent strength
- 1244
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €5.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 22 pts; league level up (+40 Elo); role change DM -> CM; relative output down 58% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -35% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1557 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 6 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 14 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–189%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 64%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | CM | 18 | 1557 | 67% | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 1244 | 1255 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | DM | 24 | 2065 | 88% | 2 | 5 | 0.31 | 0.25 | 1280 | 1288 | 0.35 |
| 2022/23 | Real Valladolid CF | Laliga | CM | 33 | 2033 | 59% | 3 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.32 | 1543 | 1372 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 6 | 405 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aris Thessalonikis | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 1363 |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 3 | 214 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Valladolid CF | 2 | 156 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1584 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haris Hajradinovic Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €3.3M | €2.7M | flat |
| İrfan Can Kahveci Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €11.0M | €6.5M | fell |
| Daniil Fomin Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €8.0M | €7.5M | flat |
| Daniil Utkin Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Deniz Türüç Super Lig · 2019 | 26 | €3.0M | €3.1M | flat |
| Marco Ilaimaharitra Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 26 | €2.8M | €2.0M | fell |
| Emre Kılınç Super Lig · 2020 | 26 | €4.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Gaius Makouta Liga Portugal · 2024 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Feb 2026 | Aris Saloniki | FC Juárez | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 3 Aug 2024 | Real Valladolid | Aris Saloniki | €3.6M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Granada CF | Real Valladolid | €1.2M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Real Valladolid | Granada CF | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Granada CF | Real Valladolid | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 16 Jul 2021 | Barcelona | Granada CF | €750k | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Girona | Barcelona | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 22 Sept 2020 | Barcelona | Girona | Free / loan | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Barcelona B | Barcelona | Unknown | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Barça U19 | Barcelona B | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Barça U18 | Barça U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Barça U16 | Barça U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Barça Youth | Barça U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | RCD Mallorca Yo | Barça Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.