Marc Guéhi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marc Guéhi's performance-implied value at EUR 47.1M-68.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 49.9M-103.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 37.8M-79.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 22
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 99.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €74.5M vs market €70.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3150 (92% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 100 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1683
- Opponent strength
- 1600
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €37.8M – €79.4M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+64 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -39% to -4%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | CB | 20 | 1800 | 53% | 2 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.15 | 1600 | 1589 | 1.30 |
| 2025/26 | Manchester City | Premier League | CB | 15 | 1350 | 39% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 1591 | 1809 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | CB | 34 | 3060 | 89% | 3 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 1564 | 1620 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | CB | 25 | 2023 | 59% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1581 | 1562 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | CB | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1574 | 1536 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | CB | 36 | 3223 | 94% | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1569 | 1537 | 1.17 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | England | 3 | 183 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Crystal Palace | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1251 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1755 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 2 | 115 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Community Shield | Crystal Palace | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1800 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 6 | 511 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 5 | 450 | 2 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben White Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €55.0M | €45.0M | flat |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €65.0M | €75.0M | flat |
| Pau Torres Laliga · 2021 | 24 | €50.0M | €45.0M | flat |
| Gabriel Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €55.0M | €75.0M | rose |
| Marcos Alonso Premier League · 2019 | 29 | €40.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| César Azpilicueta Premier League · 2018 | 29 | €40.0M | €24.0M | fell |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €40.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Andrew Robertson Premier League · 2021 | 27 | €65.0M | €40.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jan 2026 | Crystal Palace | Man City | €23.0M | €55.0M |
| 18 Jul 2021 | Chelsea | Crystal Palace | €23.3M | €10.0M |
| 31 May 2021 | Swansea | Chelsea | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 26 Aug 2020 | Chelsea | Swansea | Free / loan | €2.7M |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Swansea | Chelsea | Free / loan | €2.7M |
| 10 Jan 2020 | Chelsea | Swansea | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Chelsea U23 | Chelsea | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Chelsea U18 | Chelsea U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Chelsea Youth | Chelsea U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.