Arne Engels
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Arne Engels's performance-implied value at EUR 3.7M-20.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 14.2M-25.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.0M-28.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.09x the positional average in the league (1560 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 25
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 71.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €18.8M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 8% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1560 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.35
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 72 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1406
- Opponent strength
- 1205
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 8%
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.0M – €28.3M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-102 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -38% to +55%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1560 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 25 | 1560 | 53% | 4 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.24 | 1205 | 1406 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 30 | 1837 | 62% | 9 | 5 | 0.69 | 0.25 | 1205 | 1512 | 0.34 |
| 2024/25 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | AM | 1 | 80 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 1459 | 1404 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | CM | 32 | 1396 | 46% | 3 | 5 | 0.52 | 0.47 | 1529 | 1393 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | CM | 18 | 1444 | 47% | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.27 | 1530 | 1378 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 8 | 555 | 1 | 3 | 1496 |
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 1 | 73 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 2 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1436 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Celtic FC | 10 | 728 | 1 | 3 | 1636 |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 5 | 312 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Konstantelias Super League 1 · 2024 | 21 | €15.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Alexandru Cicâldău Super Lig · 2022 | 25 | €7.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Artem Bondarenko Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €9.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Mykola Shaparenko Premier Liga · 2022 | 24 | €10.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Mady Camara Super League 1 · 2019 | 22 | €8.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Nicolas Raskin Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 23 | €6.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Abdülkadir Ömür Super Lig · 2022 | 23 | €10.5M | €7.0M | fell |
| Miguel Crespo Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €8.0M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2024 | Augsburg | Celtic | €13.0M | €9.0M |
| 3 Jan 2023 | Club NXT | Augsburg | €100k | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Club Brugge U18 | Club NXT | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Club Brugge Yth | Club Brugge U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | KAA Gent Youth | Club Brugge Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.