Bashir Humphreys
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bashir Humphreys's performance-implied value at EUR 3.5M-15.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.2M-19.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.9M-20.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 39
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 69th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €13.2M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1578 (46% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 69 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1343
- Opponent strength
- 1597
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.9M – €20.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -43% to -7%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1578 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Burnley FC | Premier League | CB | 20 | 1578 | 46% | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 1597 | 1343 | 1.30 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Swansea City | 2 | 122 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | SC Paderborn 07 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romain Perraud Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €12.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Armel Bella-Kotchap Premier League · 2023 | 22 | €20.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Rasmus Nissen Kristensen Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €13.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Lloyd Kelly Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €18.0M | €16.0M | flat |
| Kortney Hause Premier League · 2020 | 25 | €6.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Nathan Collins Premier League · 2022 | 21 | €10.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Jordan Zemura Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €6.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Junior Firpo Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Chelsea | Burnley | €14.0M | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Burnley | Chelsea | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 21 Aug 2024 | Chelsea | Burnley | Free / loan | €4.8M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Chelsea U21 | Chelsea | Unknown | €4.8M |
| 31 May 2024 | Swansea | Chelsea U21 | Free / loan | €4.8M |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Chelsea U21 | Swansea | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | SC Paderborn | Chelsea U21 | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 27 Jan 2023 | Chelsea U21 | SC Paderborn | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Chelsea U18 | Chelsea U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Reading U18 | Chelsea U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.