Iliman Ndiaye
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Iliman Ndiaye's performance-implied value at EUR 20.7M-46.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 35.0M-74.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 27.1M-65.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.89x the positional average in the league (2789 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 15
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 91.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €56.5M vs market €55.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2789 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.29
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.35
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 92 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1556
- Opponent strength
- 1605
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €27.1M – €65.8M
Trajectory drivers: role change LW -> RW.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -46% to -1%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Everton FC | Premier League | RW | 32 | 2789 | 82% | 6 | 3 | 0.29 | 0.35 | 1605 | 1556 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Everton FC | Premier League | LW | 33 | 2440 | 71% | 9 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.40 | 1563 | 1567 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | ST | 30 | 1625 | 53% | 3 | 5 | 0.44 | 0.40 | 1461 | 1534 | 0.87 |
| 2020/21 | Sheffield United | Premier League | ST | 1 | 11 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.82 | 1615 | 1390 | 1.19 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Senegal | 6 | 440 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Senegal | 2 | 40 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 14 | 707 | 1 | 0 | 1562 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Olympique Marseille | 2 | 144 | 0 | 0 | 1436 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Paquetá Premier League · 2024 | 27 | €65.0M | €32.0M | fell |
| Leandro Trossard Premier League · 2022 | 28 | €20.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Jarrod Bowen Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €38.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Joshua King Premier League · 2019 | 27 | €20.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Dwight McNeil Premier League · 2024 | 25 | €22.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €45.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Harry Kane Premier League · 2020 | 27 | €120M | €90.0M | fell |
| Sébastien Haller Premier League · 2020 | 26 | €36.0M | €35.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2024 | Marseille | Everton | €18.0M | €15.0M |
| 1 Aug 2023 | Sheff Utd | Marseille | €17.0M | €18.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Sheffield U23 | Sheff Utd | Unknown | €200k |
| 31 May 2020 | Hyde United | Sheffield U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 24 Jan 2020 | Sheffield U23 | Hyde United | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Boreham W. U19 | Sheffield U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2019 | AFC Hillgate | Boreham W. U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Apr 2019 | Boreham W. U19 | AFC Hillgate | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Sacré Cœur | Boreham W. U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Marseille Yth | Sacré Cœur | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | FC Rouen Jugend | Marseille Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.