Samson Baidoo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Samson Baidoo's performance-implied value at EUR 2.9M-12.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.1M-36.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 16.5M-50.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 49
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 69.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €29.5M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 18% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1827 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 70 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1569
- Opponent strength
- 1466
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 18%
- Resale range (24m)
- €16.5M – €50.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -43% (IQR -51% to -12%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | CB | 23 | 1827 | 60% | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 1466 | 1569 | 0.88 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Djaló Ligue 1 · 2023 | 23 | €16.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Adrien Truffert Ligue 1 · 2023 | 22 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| João Cancelo Serie A · 2018 | 24 | €35.0M | €36.0M | flat |
| Jordan Amavi Ligue 1 · 2018 | 24 | €16.0M | €9.5M | fell |
| Alessandro Florenzi Serie A · 2015 | 24 | €18.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Panagiotis Retsos Bundesliga · 2018 | 20 | €18.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Benoît Badiashile Premier League · 2023 | 22 | €40.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Mattia Caldara Serie A · 2018 | 24 | €25.0M | €11.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2025 | Salzburg | Lens | €8.0M | €8.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | FC Liefering | Salzburg | Unknown | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | AKA Salzb. U18 | FC Liefering | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | AKA Salzb. U16 | AKA Salzb. U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | AKA Salzb. U15 | AKA Salzb. U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Liefering Yth. | AKA Salzb. U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2018 | GAK Youth | Liefering Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Apr 2013 | PSV Graz J. | GAK Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.