Oscar Bobb
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Oscar Bobb's performance-implied value at EUR 8.3M-23.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.9M-38.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 18.2M-38.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.61x the positional average in the league (1037 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 12
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 80th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €32.1M vs market €28.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 17% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1037 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.25
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1681
- Opponent strength
- 1560
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 17%
- Resale range (24m)
- €18.2M – €38.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -28% to +86%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1037 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fulham FC | Premier League | RW | 14 | 570 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1560 | 1576 | 1.30 |
| 2025/26 | Manchester City | Premier League | RW | 9 | 467 | 14% | 0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.23 | 1568 | 1809 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Manchester City | Premier League | RW | 3 | 14 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1511 | 1749 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Manchester City | Premier League | RW | 14 | 295 | 9% | 1 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.19 | 1492 | 1893 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Fulham FC | 2 | 176 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Norway | 3 | 106 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 3 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1656 |
| 2024/25 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1594 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 4 | 216 | 1 | 0 | 1517 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 5 | 183 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Elanga Premier League · 2022 | 20 | €20.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Eddie Nketiah Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €25.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Mohamed Salah Premier League · 2014 | 22 | €13.0M | €23.0M | rose |
| Eduardo Vargas Laliga · 2014 | 25 | €6.0M | €5.5M | flat |
| Mikkel Damsgaard Premier League · 2023 | 23 | €13.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Ferran Torres Laliga · 2019 | 19 | €20.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Armando Broja Premier League · 2024 | 23 | €22.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi Premier League · 2022 | 22 | €25.0M | €18.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2026 | Man City | Fulham | €31.2M | €25.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Man City U21 | Man City | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Man City U18 | Man City U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 12 Jul 2019 | Vålerenga Yth. | Man City U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Lyn FK Yth. | Vålerenga Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.