Matias Fernandez-Pardo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matias Fernandez-Pardo's performance-implied value at EUR 12.0M-37.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 28.6M-49.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 22.1M-61.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.75x the positional average in the league (2382 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 42
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 76.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €40.6M vs market €35.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 12% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2382 (78% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.49
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.38
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 77 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1547
- Opponent strength
- 1459
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 12%
- Resale range (24m)
- €22.1M – €61.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 38 pts; role change LW -> ST.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +12% (IQR -26% to +21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | ST | 29 | 2382 | 78% | 8 | 5 | 0.49 | 0.38 | 1459 | 1547 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | LW | 22 | 1065 | 35% | 4 | 3 | 0.59 | 0.33 | 1438 | 1594 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 3 | 165 | 6% | 1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.33 | 1301 | 1422 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 5 | 184 | 7% | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.31 | 1338 | 1436 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 1 | 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1100 | 1451 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | LOSC Lille | 11 | 629 | 0 | 2 | 1504 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Belgium | 3 | 41 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 7 | 260 | 0 | 1 | 1607 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 4 | 223 | 1 | 0 | 1269 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 1 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1373 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yéremy Pino Laliga · 2023 | 21 | €40.0M | €30.0M | fell |
| Christian Pulisic Bundesliga · 2018 | 20 | €45.0M | €54.0M | rose |
| Nico Williams Laliga · 2023 | 21 | €30.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Federico Chiesa Serie A · 2018 | 21 | €45.0M | €48.0M | flat |
| Lautaro Martínez Serie A · 2020 | 23 | €64.0M | €75.0M | flat |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Ligue 1 · 2024 | 22 | €20.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Jonathan Burkardt Bundesliga · 2022 | 22 | €17.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Samuel Chukwueze Laliga · 2023 | 24 | €25.0M | €10.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2024 | KAA Gent | Lille | €11.5M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Jong KAA Gent | KAA Gent | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2022 | KAA Gent U18 | KAA Gent U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | KAA Gent Youth | KAA Gent U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | LOSC Lille Yth. | KAA Gent Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | KV Mechelen Yth | LOSC Lille Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Anderlecht Yth. | KV Mechelen Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.