Chemsdine Talbi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Chemsdine Talbi's performance-implied value at EUR 12.5M-37.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 19.4M-38.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 16.3M-41.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.41x the positional average in the league (1564 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 39
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 77.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €29.9M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 26% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1564 (46% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.34
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.56
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 78 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1496
- Opponent strength
- 1602
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 26%
- Resale range (24m)
- €16.3M – €41.3M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level up (+240 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +15% (IQR +0% to +41%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1564 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sunderland AFC | Premier League | RW | 28 | 1564 | 46% | 4 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.55 | 1602 | 1496 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 21 | 953 | 35% | 5 | 3 | 0.76 | 0.48 | 1394 | 1552 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 3 | 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1344 | 1541 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 2 | 40 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1159 | 1491 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Sunderland AFC | 2 | 149 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Morocco | 2 | 31 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Morocco | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Club Brugge KV | 11 | 552 | 2 | 1 | 1672 |
| 2024/25 | Volkswagen Supercup | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1589 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Olise Premier League · 2022 | 21 | €22.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| Wilfried Gnonto Premier League · 2023 | 20 | €18.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Alexander Isak Laliga · 2020 | 21 | €22.5M | €30.0M | rose |
| Pedro Neto Premier League · 2024 | 24 | €55.0M | €60.0M | flat |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi Premier League · 2024 | 24 | €18.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Santi Mina Laliga · 2018 | 23 | €20.0M | €14.5M | fell |
| Ermedin Demirovic Bundesliga · 2021 | 23 | €12.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Jaidon Anthony Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €9.0M | €9.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2025 | Club Brugge | Sunderland | €20.0M | €8.0M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Club NXT | Club Brugge | Unknown | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Club Brugge U18 | Club NXT | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Club Brugge Yth | Club Brugge U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Tubize Yth. | Club Brugge Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.