Michael Kayode
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Michael Kayode's performance-implied value at EUR 19.7M-46.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 25.6M-56.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 29.5M-53.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 50
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 91.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €42.8M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 5% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3264 (95% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 91 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1612
- Opponent strength
- 1600
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 5%
- Resale range (24m)
- €29.5M – €53.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 76 pts; league level up (+41 Elo); relative output down 37% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +7% (IQR -25% to +19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Brentford FC | Premier League | RB | 37 | 3264 | 95% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1600 | 1612 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Brentford FC | Premier League | RB | 12 | 528 | 15% | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 1535 | 1583 | 1.23 |
| 2024/25 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | RB | 5 | 124 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1381 | 1580 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | RB | 26 | 2062 | 60% | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 1451 | 1583 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 3 | 211 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1417 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 4 | 337 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercoppa Italiana | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1630 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka Premier League · 2019 | 22 | €35.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Çağlar Söyüncü Premier League · 2020 | 24 | €32.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Luke Shaw Premier League · 2019 | 24 | €30.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Victor Lindelöf Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €35.0M | €24.0M | fell |
| Ilya Zabarnyi Premier League · 2024 | 22 | €32.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Tyrick Mitchell Premier League · 2022 | 23 | €25.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Aitor Paredes Laliga · 2024 | 24 | €22.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Ibrahima Konaté Bundesliga · 2019 | 20 | €45.0M | €35.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Fiorentina | Brentford | €17.5M | €18.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Brentford | Fiorentina | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 24 Jan 2025 | Fiorentina | Brentford | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Fiorentina U19 | Fiorentina | Unknown | €800k |
| 23 Jul 2021 | Gozzano | Fiorentina U19 | Unknown | €125k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Juventus Youth | Gozzano | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Gozzano Youth | Juventus Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Juventus Youth | Gozzano Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.