Oliver Braude
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Oliver Braude's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.8M-4.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.1M-9.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 100
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 30th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.3M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 27% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2820 (92% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 30 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1284
- Opponent strength
- 1312
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 27%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.1M – €9.5M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 54% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +8% (IQR -29% to +123%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | RB | 32 | 2820 | 92% | 0 | 5 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 1312 | 1284 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | RB | 33 | 2619 | 86% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 1296 | 1252 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | RB | 28 | 2122 | 69% | 0 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 1358 | 1222 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 4 | 350 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bünyamin Balcı Super Lig · 2023 | 23 | €4.0M | €2.2M | fell |
| Kalidou Koulibaly Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 23 | €6.5M | €20.0M | rose |
| Oliver Villadsen Superliga · 2023 | 22 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Nick Viergever Eredivisie · 2013 | 24 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Igor Diveev Premier Liga · 2022 | 23 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Cenk Özkacar Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 22 | €2.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Arthur Theate Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 21 | €5.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Victor Nelsson Superliga · 2019 | 21 | €3.0M | €3.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Heerenveen U21 | Heerenveen | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Heerenveen U18 | Heerenveen U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Vålerenga Yth. | Heerenveen U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 7 Sept 2018 | Stabæk Yth. | Vålerenga Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2015 | Skeid Yth. | Stabæk Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Vålerenga Yth. | Skeid Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.