Ethan Mbappé
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ethan Mbappé's performance-implied value at EUR 1.6M-10.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.3M-14.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.7M-21.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.03x the positional average in the league (559 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 38.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 19.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €8.5M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +48% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 44% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 559 (18% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.64
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.41
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 38 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1547
- Opponent strength
- 1513
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 44%
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.7M – €21.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +15% (IQR -28% to +232%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 559 league minutes last season.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | RW | 18 | 559 | 18% | 3 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.41 | 1513 | 1547 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | RW | 10 | 217 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1380 | 1594 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 3 | 46 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1331 | 1700 | 0.87 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | LOSC Lille | 2 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1398 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 2 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1627 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | LOSC Lille | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1607 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leroy Sané Bundesliga · 2015 | 19 | €4.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Willem Geubbels Ligue 1 · 2022 | 21 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Luis Henrique Ligue 1 · 2021 | 20 | €8.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Bamba Dieng Ligue 1 · 2022 | 22 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Ander Barrenetxea Laliga · 2023 | 22 | €6.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Mohamed-Ali Cho Ligue 1 · 2024 | 20 | €10.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Myziane Maolida Ligue 1 · 2019 | 20 | €8.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Jadon Sancho Bundesliga · 2018 | 18 | €15.0M | €117M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2024 | Paris SG U19 | Lille | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Paris SG U17 | Paris SG U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | PSG Youth | Paris SG U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Aug 2017 | AS Bondy Yth. | PSG Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.