Pau Cubarsí
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pau Cubarsí's performance-implied value at EUR 36.9M-108.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 57.5M-134.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 60.8M-115.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 20
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 97.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 19.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €108M vs market €80.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 6% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2706 (79% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 98 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1787
- Opponent strength
- 1478
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 6%
- Resale range (24m)
- €60.8M – €115M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 53% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -18% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | CB | 31 | 2706 | 79% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1478 | 1787 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | CB | 35 | 2621 | 77% | 0 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 1510 | 1792 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | CB | 19 | 1562 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1480 | 1723 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 10 | 745 | 0 | 0 | 1624 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 5 | 347 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Spain | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1632 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 13 | 982 | 0 | 1 | 1656 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 6 | 431 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1748 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1708 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 2 | 95 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josko Gvardiol Bundesliga · 2023 | 21 | €75.0M | €75.0M | flat |
| Castello Lukeba Bundesliga · 2024 | 22 | €40.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Juan Bernat Bundesliga · 2015 | 22 | €20.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Alphonso Davies Bundesliga · 2021 | 21 | €70.0M | €70.0M | flat |
| Niklas Süle Bundesliga · 2019 | 24 | €60.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| Dayot Upamecano Bundesliga · 2023 | 25 | €60.0M | €50.0M | flat |
| Nuno Mendes Ligue 1 · 2022 | 20 | €40.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| Matthijs de Ligt Serie A · 2021 | 22 | €75.0M | €75.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2024 | Barça Atlètic | Barcelona | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Barça U19 | Barça Atlètic | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Barça U18 | Barça U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Barça Youth | Barça U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Girona FC Youth | Barça Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.