Ruan
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ruan's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.8M-4.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-7.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.08x the positional average in the league (2255 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 71
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 8.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.0M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 36% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2255 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 9 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1229
- Opponent strength
- 1259
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 36%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.9M – €7.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +24% (IQR +12% to +56%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | LM | 28 | 2255 | 74% | 1 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.24 | 1259 | 1229 | 0.40 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Raskin Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 21 | €5.0M | €6.5M | rose |
| Kacper Kozlowski Eredivisie · 2024 | 21 | €5.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Berat Özdemir Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €3.5M | €4.5M | rose |
| Vini Souza Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 23 | €4.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Dal Varesanovic Super Lig · 2024 | 23 | €2.4M | €1.2M | fell |
| Jakub Kaluzinski Super Lig · 2024 | 22 | €2.1M | €2.5M | flat |
| Albert Grønbaek Superliga · 2022 | 21 | €1.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Kirill Shchetinin Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €3.0M | €2.8M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sept 2025 | Portimonense | Alanyaspor | €1.0M | €700k |
| 2 Aug 2024 | Juventude | Portimonense | €325k | €550k |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Juventude U20 | Juventude | Unknown | €150k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.