Estêvão
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Estêvão's performance-implied value at EUR 7.4M-57.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 57.5M-127.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 58.2M-125.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.81x the positional average in the league (846 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 80.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 19.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very unfavorable | est. €109M vs market €80.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 10% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 846 (25% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.43
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.32
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 81 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1615
- Opponent strength
- 1593
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 10%
- Resale range (24m)
- €58.2M – €125M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -43% to +29%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Small sample: 846 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | RW | 22 | 846 | 25% | 2 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.32 | 1593 | 1615 | 1.30 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 7 | 427 | 3 | 0 | 1596 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 3 | 191 | 2 | 2 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Hudson-Odoi Premier League · 2020 | 20 | €31.5M | €25.0M | fell |
| Gabriel Martinelli Premier League · 2020 | 19 | €25.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Kevin Schade Premier League · 2023 | 22 | €25.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Moise Kean Premier League · 2020 | 20 | €25.0M | €24.0M | flat |
| Ademola Lookman Premier League · 2019 | 22 | €20.0M | €11.0M | fell |
| Evan Ferguson Premier League · 2024 | 20 | €50.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Vinicius Junior Laliga · 2019 | 19 | €70.0M | €40.0M | fell |
| Ferran Torres Laliga · 2019 | 19 | €20.0M | €50.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jul 2025 | Palmeiras | Chelsea | €45.0M | €60.0M |
| 18 Jan 2024 | Palmeiras U20 | Palmeiras | Unknown | €10.0M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Palmeiras U17 | Palmeiras U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.