Lennart Karl
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lennart Karl's performance-implied value at EUR 9.6M-107.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 46.2M-96.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 37.2M-110.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.68x the positional average in the league (1282 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 46
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 86.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 18.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €79.5M vs market €60.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 28% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1282 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.77
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.27
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 86 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1871
- Opponent strength
- 1448
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 28%
- Resale range (24m)
- €37.2M – €111M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +40% (IQR +11% to +71%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1282 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | RW | 26 | 1282 | 42% | 5 | 6 | 0.77 | 0.27 | 1448 | 1871 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 8 | 468 | 4 | 2 | 1665 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 3 | 153 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1531 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrygo Laliga · 2022 | 21 | €60.0M | €110M | rose |
| Vinicius Junior Laliga · 2020 | 20 | €45.0M | €100M | rose |
| Kingsley Coman Bundesliga · 2019 | 23 | €50.0M | €65.0M | rose |
| Ansu Fati Laliga · 2020 | 18 | €36.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Kylian Mbappé Ligue 1 · 2018 | 20 | €120M | €180M | rose |
| Mason Greenwood Premier League · 2021 | 20 | €50.0M | €50.0M | flat |
| Ousmane Dembélé Laliga · 2019 | 22 | €100M | €50.0M | fell |
| Jérémy Doku Premier League · 2024 | 22 | €65.0M | €75.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jun 2025 | FC Bayern U19 | Bayern Munich | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2025 | FC Bayern U17 | FC Bayern U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2024 | B. München Yth. | FC Bayern U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Aschaff. Yth. | B. München Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Frankfurt Yth. | Aschaff. Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Aschaff. Yth. | Frankfurt Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Frammersbach | Aschaff. Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.