Lushendry Martes
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lushendry Martes's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.0M-7.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-10.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 34
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 1.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 18.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very unfavorable | est. €4.5M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 41% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 941 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 1 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1213
- Opponent strength
- 1271
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 41%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.9M – €10.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +124% (IQR +20% to +263%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 941 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | RB | 13 | 941 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1271 | 1213 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 113 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Egan-Riley Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 20 | €2.5M | €16.0M | rose |
| Sepp van den Berg Eredivisie · 2019 | 18 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Hugo Siquet Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 20 | €5.5M | €5.0M | flat |
| James Hill Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 21 | €1.0M | €3.0M | rose |
| Kristoffer Ajer Scottish Premiership · 2017 | 19 | €800k | €2.0M | rose |
| Matte Smets Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 19 | €1.0M | €13.0M | rose |
| Andrey Langovich Premier Liga · 2022 | 19 | €750k | €1.5M | rose |
| Kazımcan Karataş Super Lig · 2024 | 21 | €1.9M | €2.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2026 | Sparta U21 | Sparta R. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Sparta U19 | Sparta U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Sparta Youth | Sparta U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.