Estéban Lepaul
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Estéban Lepaul's performance-implied value at EUR 6.2M-19.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 26.6M-46.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 20.0M-47.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.43x the positional average in the league (2705 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 17
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 78th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €37.4M vs market €35.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2705 (88% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.86
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.71
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 78 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1506
- Opponent strength
- 1461
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €20.0M – €47.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 35 pts; changed club; team strength up (+215 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -19% (IQR -42% to +49%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | ST | 32 | 2530 | 83% | 20 | 5 | 0.89 | 0.71 | 1461 | 1520 | 0.88 |
| 2025/26 | Angers SCO | Ligue 1 | ST | 2 | 175 | 6% | 1 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.96 | 1640 | 1306 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Angers SCO | Ligue 1 | ST | 28 | 1631 | 53% | 9 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.74 | 1475 | 1291 | 0.88 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovanni Simeone Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €17.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Florian Thauvin Ligue 1 · 2017 | 24 | €18.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Duván Zapata Serie A · 2019 | 28 | €40.0M | €33.0M | flat |
| Ciro Immobile Serie A · 2014 | 24 | €18.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| André Silva Bundesliga · 2021 | 26 | €45.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Martin Terrier Ligue 1 · 2022 | 25 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Thorgan Hazard Bundesliga · 2018 | 25 | €22.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Mauro Icardi Serie A · 2017 | 24 | €50.0M | €80.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2025 | Angers SCO | Stade Rennais | €13.5M | €7.0M |
| 25 Jan 2024 | SAS Epinal | Angers SCO | €150k | €600k |
| 5 Jul 2023 | US Orléans | SAS Epinal | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | SAS Epinal | US Orléans | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 18 Aug 2020 | Olymp. Lyon B | SAS Epinal | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Olymp. Lyon B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Olymp. Lyon U17 | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Colmar Jugend | Olymp. Lyon U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.