Robin Roefs
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Robin Roefs's performance-implied value at EUR 8.1M-36.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 22.6M-43.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 18.7M-37.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 31
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 86.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €31.8M vs market €28.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3150 (92% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 86 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1496
- Opponent strength
- 1611
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €18.7M – €37.7M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+176 Elo); league level up (+297 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +8% (IQR -22% to +25%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sunderland AFC | Premier League | GK | 35 | 3150 | 92% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1611 | 1496 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | GK | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1294 | 1320 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | GK | 5 | 419 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1268 | 1336 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Sunderland AFC | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illan Meslier Premier League · 2023 | 23 | €20.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Dean Henderson Premier League · 2020 | 23 | €14.5M | €18.0M | rose |
| Jordan Pickford Premier League · 2018 | 24 | €30.0M | €28.0M | flat |
| Unai Simón Laliga · 2021 | 24 | €20.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Pau López Laliga · 2019 | 25 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Aaron Ramsdale Premier League · 2020 | 22 | €12.5M | €28.0M | rose |
| Robert Sánchez Premier League · 2022 | 25 | €16.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Gerónimo Rulli Laliga · 2017 | 25 | €14.0M | €10.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2025 | NEC Nijmegen | Sunderland | €10.5M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | NEC U21 | NEC Nijmegen | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | NEC U17 | NEC U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | NEC Youth | NEC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.