Milos Kerkez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Milos Kerkez's performance-implied value at EUR 46.1M-69.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 24.0M-47.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 24.5M-45.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 31
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 96.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €38.5M vs market €35.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 10% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2261 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 96 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1682
- Opponent strength
- 1598
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 10%
- Resale range (24m)
- €24.5M – €45.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 32 pts; changed club; team strength up (+100 Elo); relative output down 50% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +11% (IQR -19% to +93%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | LB | 34 | 2261 | 66% | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1598 | 1682 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | LB | 38 | 3342 | 98% | 2 | 6 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 1574 | 1582 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | LB | 28 | 1976 | 58% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 1603 | 1496 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | LB | 33 | 2686 | 88% | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 1344 | 1530 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 9 | 594 | 0 | 0 | 1656 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Community Shield | Liverpool FC | 1 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1620 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 3 | 223 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 2 | 150 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 461 | 0 | 3 | 1339 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 196 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jules Koundé Laliga · 2020 | 22 | €22.5M | €60.0M | rose |
| Aaron Hickey Premier League · 2023 | 21 | €25.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Gabriel Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €25.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| William Saliba Premier League · 2023 | 22 | €65.0M | €80.0M | rose |
| Marc Guéhi Premier League · 2024 | 24 | €38.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Matty Cash Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €25.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Micky van de Ven Premier League · 2024 | 23 | €55.0M | €50.0M | flat |
| Davinson Sánchez Premier League · 2019 | 23 | €55.0M | €32.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Bournemouth | Liverpool | €46.9M | €45.0M |
| 20 Jul 2023 | AZ Alkmaar | Bournemouth | €20.5M | €15.0M |
| 29 Jan 2022 | Milan U19 | AZ Alkmaar | €2.7M | €300k |
| 1 Feb 2021 | ETO FC | Milan U19 | €200k | €200k |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Győr U17 | ETO FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jul 2019 | Hódmez. Jgd | Győr U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 8 May 2019 | AKA Rapid U16 | Hódmez. Jgd | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | AKA Rapid U15 | AKA Rapid U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Rapid Youth | AKA Rapid U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 12 Nov 2014 | Hajduk 1912 U17 | Rapid Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 May 2011 | OFK Vrbas U19 | Hajduk 1912 U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.