Alberto Costa
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alberto Costa's performance-implied value at EUR 4.2M-16.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.8M-24.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 14.1M-30.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 51
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 70.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €19.2M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 12% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2227 (73% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.40
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 70 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1594
- Opponent strength
- 1331
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 12%
- Resale range (24m)
- €14.1M – €30.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 43 pts; changed club; team strength up (+107 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +15% (IQR -6% to +52%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | RB | 29 | 2227 | 73% | 1 | 9 | 0.40 | 0.19 | 1331 | 1594 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | RB | 10 | 673 | 22% | 0 | 3 | 0.40 | 0.24 | 1347 | 1412 | 0.51 |
| 2024/25 | Juventus FC | Serie A | RB | 9 | 352 | 10% | 0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.13 | 1490 | 1629 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | LM | 1 | 14 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1699 | 1397 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Porto | 11 | 666 | 0 | 0 | 1509 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Vitória Guimarães SC | 3 | 255 | 0 | 0 | 1317 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacha Boey Super Lig · 2023 | 23 | €16.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Nélson Semedo Liga Portugal · 2017 | 24 | €20.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Jetro Willems Eredivisie · 2017 | 23 | €7.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Olivier Boscagli Eredivisie · 2021 | 24 | €7.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Otávio Liga Portugal · 2024 | 22 | €13.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Alejandro Grimaldo Liga Portugal · 2018 | 23 | €20.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Gonçalo Inácio Liga Portugal · 2022 | 21 | €23.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Mauro Júnior Eredivisie · 2022 | 23 | €6.0M | €7.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2025 | Juventus | Porto | €15.0M | €10.0M |
| 15 Jan 2025 | Vit. Guimarães | Juventus | €13.8M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Guimarães B | Vit. Guimarães | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Vitória SC U19 | Guimarães B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Vitória SC U17 | Vitória SC U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Vitória SC U15 | Vitória SC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Vitória SC Yth | Vitória SC U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Tirsense Form. | Vitória SC Yth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.