Yarek Gasiorowski
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Yarek Gasiorowski's performance-implied value at EUR 5.4M-18.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.9M-25.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.4M-37.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 61
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 64.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €21.8M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 21% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2144 (70% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.21
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 64 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1606
- Opponent strength
- 1300
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 21%
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.4M – €37.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 42 pts; changed club; team strength up (+143 Elo); league level down (-206 Elo); relative output up 87% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +9% (IQR -5% to +52%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | CB | 28 | 2144 | 70% | 3 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.08 | 1300 | 1606 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CB | 15 | 946 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1530 | 1463 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CB | 14 | 733 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1510 | 1459 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 554 | 0 | 0 | 1634 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1297 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 4 | 294 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacha Boey Super Lig · 2023 | 23 | €16.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Odilon Kossounou Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 20 | €13.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Jetro Willems Eredivisie · 2017 | 23 | €7.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Sergiño Dest Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €22.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Ousmane Diomande Liga Portugal · 2024 | 21 | €40.0M | €42.0M | flat |
| Jarrad Branthwaite Eredivisie · 2023 | 21 | €10.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Olivier Boscagli Eredivisie · 2021 | 24 | €7.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Nélson Semedo Liga Portugal · 2017 | 24 | €20.0M | €40.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2025 | Valencia | PSV | €9.8M | €7.5M |
| 1 Oct 2023 | Valencia B | Valencia | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Valencia U19 | Valencia B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Valencia CF You | Valencia U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.