Murillo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Murillo's performance-implied value at EUR 32.0M-51.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 37.5M-73.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 30.5M-60.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 15
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 94.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 24 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €57.7M vs market €50.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2133 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 95 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1635
- Opponent strength
- 1632
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €30.5M – €60.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 31 pts; team strength up (+63 Elo); relative output down 26% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -26% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | CB | 25 | 2133 | 62% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1632 | 1635 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | CB | 36 | 3191 | 93% | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1579 | 1573 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | CB | 32 | 2793 | 82% | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1576 | 1428 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Nottingham Forest | 13 | 688 | 1 | 0 | 1508 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 3 | 330 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 4 | 372 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Çağlar Söyüncü Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €45.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Marc Guéhi Premier League · 2024 | 24 | €38.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Marc Cucurella Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €35.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Matty Cash Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €25.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Cristian Romero Premier League · 2022 | 24 | €48.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| José Gayà Laliga · 2020 | 25 | €40.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Micky van de Ven Premier League · 2024 | 23 | €55.0M | €50.0M | flat |
| Aaron Hickey Premier League · 2023 | 21 | €25.0M | €10.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug 2023 | Corinthians | Nott'm Forest | €12.0M | €3.5M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Corinthians U20 | Corinthians | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.