What would MoneyballAI have found in 2021?
The top 50 players by Bargain Index on 1 July of that year, using only information available on that date (no look-ahead), and what actually happened over the next ~2 years. All picks are shown — successes and failures.
17 hits (market value up ≥ 25% within ~2 years) · 33 misses · 0 unknown. A “miss” can still have been a sensible purchase; “hit” is judged against market value, not our own estimates.
| # | Player | Age then | League then | BI | Value then | Est. acquisition then | Value ~2y later | Change | Next league | Sold for | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nené DM | 26 | Liga Portugal | 100 | €325k | €160k | €1.2M | +269% | left covered leagues / no data | — | hit |
| 2 | Oihan Sancet AM | 21 | Laliga | 100 | €3.5M | €3.2M | €30.0M | +757% | Laliga | — | hit |
| 3 | Jamie Robson LB | 24 | Scottish Premiership | 100 | €400k | €195k | €350k | -13% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 4 | Ernest Antwi LW | 26 | Premier Liga | 100 | €300k | €142k | €250k | -17% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 5 | Tommie Hoban CB | 27 | Scottish Premiership | 100 | €450k | €232k | €450k | +0% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 6 | Volodymyr Krynskyi GK | 25 | Premier Liga | 100 | €300k | €144k | €150k | -50% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 7 | Dmytro Topalov LW | 23 | Premier Liga | 100 | €500k | €239k | €800k | +60% | Premier Liga | — | hit |
| 8 | Theofanis Tzandaris DM | 28 | Super League 1 | 100 | €250k | €119k | €300k | +20% | Super League 1 | — | miss |
| 9 | Oleg Kudryk GK | 25 | Premier Liga | 100 | €300k | €148k | €400k | +33% | left covered leagues / no data | — | hit |
| 10 | Roman Gagun RB | 28 | Premier Liga | 100 | €300k | €130k | €400k | +33% | Premier Liga | — | hit |
| 11 | Scott Pittman AM | 29 | Scottish Premiership | 100 | €450k | €222k | €500k | +11% | Scottish Premiership | — | miss |
| 12 | Oleksandr Kozak LW | 27 | Premier Liga | 100 | €300k | €152k | €200k | -33% | Premier Liga | — | miss |
| 13 | Rafael Sabino DM | 25 | Premier Liga | 100 | €300k | €155k | €300k | +0% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 14 | Greg Kiltie LW | 24 | Scottish Premiership | 100 | €450k | €187k | €375k | -17% | Scottish Premiership | — | miss |
| 15 | Maksym Grysyo RB | 25 | Premier Liga | 100 | €300k | €147k | €400k | +33% | Premier Liga | — | hit |
| 16 | Jak Alnwick GK | 28 | Scottish Premiership | 100 | €375k | €194k | €400k | +7% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 17 | Nicky Devlin RB | 28 | Scottish Premiership | 100 | €600k | €303k | €700k | +17% | Scottish Premiership | — | miss |
| 18 | Scott McMann LB | 25 | Scottish Premiership | 100 | €400k | €190k | €375k | -6% | Scottish Premiership | — | miss |
| 19 | Hannes Wolf RW | 22 | Bundesliga | 100 | €8.0M | €5.8M | €3.0M | -63% | Bundesliga | — | miss |
| 20 | Yuriy Klymchuk ST | 24 | Premier Liga | 99 | €400k | €212k | €700k | +75% | Premier Liga | — | hit |
| 21 | Ross Millen RB | 27 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €300k | €122k | €275k | -8% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 22 | Hakeem Odoffin DM | 23 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €325k | €173k | €500k | +54% | left covered leagues / no data | — | hit |
| 23 | Pedro Henrique ST | 25 | Liga Portugal | 99 | €350k | €206k | €650k | +86% | left covered leagues / no data | — | hit |
| 24 | Maryan Mysyk LM | 25 | Premier Liga | 99 | €400k | €173k | €300k | -25% | Premier Liga | — | miss |
| 25 | Orest Lebedenko LB | 23 | Premier Liga | 99 | €500k | €229k | €500k | +0% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 26 | Tobias Mölgaard CB | 25 | Superliga | 99 | €300k | €153k | €600k | +100% | Superliga | €400k | hit |
| 27 | Trevoh Chalobah CB | 22 | Ligue 1 | 99 | €3.5M | €3.0M | €18.0M | +414% | Premier League | — | hit |
| 28 | Robbie Crawford CM | 27 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €325k | €135k | €325k | +0% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 29 | Shemmy Mayembe RB | 24 | Premier Liga | 99 | €300k | €152k | €300k | +0% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 30 | Babacar Niasse GK | 25 | Liga Portugal | 99 | €350k | €183k | €650k | +86% | left covered leagues / no data | — | hit |
| 31 | Mykhaylo Shyshka DM | 27 | Premier Liga | 99 | €300k | €141k | €200k | -33% | Premier Liga | — | miss |
| 32 | Adrián Spörle LB | 26 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €500k | €273k | €250k | -50% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 33 | Dylan Batubinsika CB | 25 | Jupiler Pro League | 99 | €1.0M | €733k | €1.2M | +20% | Liga Portugal | — | miss |
| 34 | Jorn Brondeel GK | 28 | Eredivisie | 99 | €300k | €127k | €150k | -50% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 35 | Craig Sibbald DM | 26 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €400k | €201k | €375k | -6% | Scottish Premiership | — | miss |
| 36 | Joe Shaughnessy CB | 29 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €400k | €188k | €400k | +0% | Scottish Premiership | — | miss |
| 37 | Benito RW | 23 | Premier Liga | 99 | €400k | €172k | €400k | +0% | Premier Liga | — | miss |
| 38 | Perr Schuurs CB | 22 | Eredivisie | 99 | €8.0M | €9.1M | €25.0M | +213% | Serie A | €9.4M | hit |
| 39 | Felipe Abner LB | 25 | Liga Portugal | 99 | €300k | €166k | €700k | +133% | left covered leagues / no data | — | hit |
| 40 | Hilal Ben Moussa CM | 29 | Eredivisie | 99 | €300k | €128k | €150k | -50% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 41 | Matty Kennedy LW | 27 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €450k | €222k | €400k | -11% | Scottish Premiership | — | miss |
| 42 | Aaron McGowan RB | 25 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €325k | €125k | €250k | -23% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 43 | Rory McKenzie RW | 28 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €325k | €134k | €500k | +54% | Scottish Premiership | — | hit |
| 44 | Ryan Fulton GK | 25 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €400k | €195k | €300k | -25% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 45 | Federico Álvarez LB | 27 | Super League 1 | 99 | €450k | €253k | €600k | +33% | Super League 1 | — | hit |
| 46 | Pedro Augusto CM | 24 | Liga Portugal | 99 | €400k | €237k | €500k | +25% | left covered leagues / no data | — | hit |
| 47 | Jon Guthrie CB | 29 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €500k | €287k | €325k | -35% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 48 | Serge Leuko RB | 28 | Jupiler Pro League | 99 | €300k | €114k | €300k | +0% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 49 | Kyle McAllister RW | 22 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €325k | €188k | €300k | -8% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 50 | Aymen Barkok AM | 23 | Bundesliga | 99 | €3.5M | €2.6M | €2.0M | -43% | Bundesliga | — | miss |