What would MoneyballAI have found in 2018?
The top 50 players by Bargain Index on 1 July of that year, using only information available on that date (no look-ahead), and what actually happened over the next ~2 years. All picks are shown — successes and failures.
21 hits (market value up ≥ 25% within ~2 years) · 29 misses · 0 unknown. A “miss” can still have been a sensible purchase; “hit” is judged against market value, not our own estimates.
| # | Player | Age then | League then | BI | Value then | Est. acquisition then | Value ~2y later | Change | Next league | Sold for | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robin Zentner GK | 24 | Bundesliga | 100 | €600k | €358k | €3.2M | +433% | Bundesliga | — | hit |
| 2 | Timothy Fosu-Mensah RB | 21 | Premier League | 100 | €7.0M | €6.5M | €6.3M | -10% | Premier League | — | miss |
| 3 | Martín Aguirregabiria RB | 22 | Laliga | 100 | €1.5M | €1.3M | €4.8M | +220% | Laliga | — | hit |
| 4 | Alex Iwobi LW | 22 | Premier League | 100 | €15.0M | €10.2M | €25.5M | +70% | Premier League | €30.4M | hit |
| 5 | Jonathan Ikoné RW | 20 | Ligue 1 | 100 | €700k | €584k | €36.0M | +5043% | Ligue 1 | €5.0M | hit |
| 6 | Juanmi LW | 25 | Laliga | 100 | €7.5M | €4.0M | €4.0M | -47% | Laliga | €8.0M | miss |
| 7 | Kristoffer Ajer CB | 20 | Scottish Premiership | 100 | €800k | €958k | €2.7M | +238% | Scottish Premiership | — | hit |
| 8 | Maximilian Eggestein CM | 22 | Bundesliga | 100 | €10.0M | €10.4M | €13.0M | +30% | Bundesliga | — | hit |
| 9 | Jonjoe Kenny RB | 21 | Premier League | 100 | €5.0M | €4.0M | €9.5M | +90% | Bundesliga | — | hit |
| 10 | Volodymyr Shepelev CM | 21 | Premier Liga | 100 | €1.5M | €1.4M | €3.2M | +113% | Premier Liga | — | hit |
| 11 | Cheick Doukouré DM | 26 | Laliga | 100 | €1.5M | €771k | €650k | -57% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 12 | Pau López GK | 24 | Laliga | 100 | €5.0M | €4.2M | €19.0M | +280% | Serie A | — | hit |
| 13 | Lukas Klostermann CB | 22 | Bundesliga | 100 | €12.0M | €11.4M | €28.0M | +133% | Bundesliga | — | hit |
| 14 | Enes Ünal ST | 21 | Laliga | 100 | €8.0M | €6.9M | €4.0M | -50% | Laliga | — | miss |
| 15 | Christian Jakobsen AM | 25 | Superliga | 100 | €600k | €365k | €475k | -21% | Superliga | — | miss |
| 16 | Berkay Özcan CM | 20 | Bundesliga | 100 | €2.5M | €2.3M | €2.3M | -8% | Super Lig | — | miss |
| 17 | Anton Miranchuk AM | 23 | Premier Liga | 100 | €8.0M | €7.6M | €13.0M | +63% | Premier Liga | — | hit |
| 18 | Artur Nigmatullin GK | 27 | Premier Liga | 100 | €900k | €529k | €725k | -19% | Premier Liga | — | miss |
| 19 | Nico Elvedi CB | 22 | Bundesliga | 100 | €17.0M | €14.5M | €28.0M | +65% | Bundesliga | — | hit |
| 20 | Rolando Mandragora DM | 21 | Serie A | 99 | €10.0M | €10.4M | €12.0M | +20% | Serie A | €20.0M | miss |
| 21 | Jason Remeseiro RW | 24 | Laliga | 99 | €1.2M | €907k | €4.8M | +300% | Laliga | — | hit |
| 22 | Mikel Merino CM | 22 | Premier League | 99 | €10.0M | €7.9M | €24.0M | +140% | Laliga | €12.0M | hit |
| 23 | Anastasios Bakasetas AM | 25 | Super League 1 | 99 | €1.5M | €1.0M | €2.0M | +33% | Super Lig | €500k | hit |
| 24 | Stephen O'Donnell RB | 26 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €300k | €179k | €550k | +83% | Scottish Premiership | — | hit |
| 25 | Bart Ramselaar AM | 22 | Eredivisie | 99 | €6.0M | €4.5M | €2.4M | -60% | Eredivisie | — | miss |
| 26 | Valentin Rosier RB | 22 | Ligue 1 | 99 | €4.5M | €3.6M | €4.8M | +7% | Liga Portugal | €5.0M | miss |
| 27 | Ayaz Guliev CM | 22 | Premier Liga | 99 | €850k | €472k | €2.0M | +135% | Premier Liga | — | hit |
| 28 | Clarck N'Sikulu ST | 26 | Super League 1 | 99 | €500k | €255k | €550k | +10% | Super League 1 | — | miss |
| 29 | Amath Ndiaye RW | 22 | Laliga | 99 | €5.0M | €5.6M | €2.4M | -52% | Laliga | — | miss |
| 30 | Wilfred Ndidi DM | 22 | Premier League | 99 | €25.0M | €21.6M | €36.0M | +44% | Premier League | — | hit |
| 31 | James Léa Siliki CM | 22 | Ligue 1 | 99 | €5.0M | €5.6M | €4.8M | -4% | Ligue 1 | — | miss |
| 32 | Joaquín Correa SS | 24 | Laliga | 99 | €10.0M | €6.8M | €30.5M | +205% | Serie A | €17.9M | hit |
| 33 | Marc Navarro RM | 23 | Laliga | 99 | €2.0M | €1.5M | €1.2M | -40% | Laliga | — | miss |
| 34 | Lasse Vigen CM | 24 | Superliga | 99 | €1.3M | €802k | €1.2M | -4% | Superliga | — | miss |
| 35 | Jordon Ibe RW | 23 | Premier League | 99 | €9.0M | €7.3M | €4.8M | -47% | Premier League | — | miss |
| 36 | Nicolai Boilesen LB | 26 | Superliga | 99 | €1.3M | €771k | €800k | -36% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 37 | Tomas Koubek GK | 26 | Ligue 1 | 99 | €7.0M | €5.7M | €3.5M | -50% | Bundesliga | €7.5M | miss |
| 38 | Junior Sambia RB | 22 | Ligue 1 | 99 | €2.5M | €2.1M | €2.8M | +12% | Ligue 1 | — | miss |
| 39 | Kenny McLean CM | 27 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €650k | €413k | €3.5M | +438% | Premier League | — | hit |
| 40 | Goran Causic CM | 26 | Premier Liga | 99 | €2.0M | €1.2M | €1.4M | -30% | Premier Liga | — | miss |
| 41 | Alfa Semedo DM | 21 | Liga Portugal | 99 | €1.5M | €1.1M | €1.6M | +7% | left covered leagues / no data | €2.5M | miss |
| 42 | Ivi López AM | 24 | Laliga | 99 | €2.0M | €1.6M | €650k | -68% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 43 | Gary Woods GK | 28 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €325k | €155k | €300k | -8% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 44 | Martin Terrier LW | 21 | Ligue 1 | 99 | €9.0M | €7.9M | €10.5M | +17% | Ligue 1 | — | miss |
| 45 | Denzel Dumfries RB | 22 | Eredivisie | 99 | €4.0M | €3.8M | €12.0M | +200% | Eredivisie | — | hit |
| 46 | Nacho Gil LW | 23 | Laliga | 99 | €800k | €593k | €475k | -41% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 47 | Nadiem Amiri CM | 22 | Bundesliga | 99 | €17.0M | €15.0M | €16.0M | -6% | Bundesliga | €10.5M | miss |
| 48 | Rory McKenzie RW | 25 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €300k | €164k | €300k | +0% | Scottish Premiership | — | miss |
| 49 | Jonas Martin DM | 28 | Ligue 1 | 99 | €3.0M | €1.6M | €2.8M | -7% | Ligue 1 | €4.0M | miss |
| 50 | Bryan Idowu LB | 26 | Premier Liga | 99 | €1.5M | €750k | €950k | -37% | Premier Liga | — | miss |