What would MoneyballAI have found in 2017?
The top 50 players by Bargain Index on 1 July of that year, using only information available on that date (no look-ahead), and what actually happened over the next ~2 years. All picks are shown — successes and failures.
20 hits (market value up ≥ 25% within ~2 years) · 30 misses · 0 unknown. A “miss” can still have been a sensible purchase; “hit” is judged against market value, not our own estimates.
| # | Player | Age then | League then | BI | Value then | Est. acquisition then | Value ~2y later | Change | Next league | Sold for | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fabinho AM | 23 | Liga Portugal | 100 | €400k | €198k | €275k | -31% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 2 | Álvaro Odriozola RB | 22 | Laliga | 100 | €7.5M | €6.0M | €25.0M | +233% | Laliga | €32.0M | hit |
| 3 | Gabriel Pires DM | 24 | Laliga | 100 | €4.0M | €2.8M | €13.0M | +225% | Liga Portugal | €9.6M | hit |
| 4 | Andreas Pereira CM | 22 | Laliga | 100 | €5.0M | €3.9M | €10.0M | +100% | Premier League | — | hit |
| 5 | Aleksandr Zuev LW | 21 | Premier Liga | 100 | €1.0M | €468k | €2.0M | +100% | Premier Liga | — | hit |
| 6 | Darwin Machís LW | 24 | Laliga | 100 | €1.0M | €389k | €3.0M | +200% | Serie A | — | hit |
| 7 | Iker Muniain LW | 25 | Laliga | 100 | €15.0M | €9.4M | €15.0M | +0% | Laliga | — | miss |
| 8 | Moi Gómez AM | 23 | Laliga | 100 | €3.0M | €1.5M | €5.0M | +67% | Laliga | — | hit |
| 9 | Abdoulaye Keita DM | 24 | Ligue 1 | 100 | €400k | €248k | €500k | +25% | Super League 1 | — | hit |
| 10 | Álex Berenguer LW | 22 | Laliga | 100 | €6.0M | €4.1M | €6.0M | +0% | Serie A | €7.0M | miss |
| 11 | Olivier Ntcham CM | 21 | Serie A | 100 | €1.8M | €1.0M | €4.0M | +122% | Scottish Premiership | €5.0M | hit |
| 12 | Roman Karasyuk DM | 26 | Premier Liga | 100 | €600k | €325k | €300k | -50% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 13 | James Maddison AM | 21 | Scottish Premiership | 100 | €1.5M | €999k | €40.0M | +2567% | Premier League | €25.0M | hit |
| 14 | Pablo Fornals CM | 21 | Laliga | 100 | €10.0M | €7.9M | €25.0M | +150% | Laliga | €12.0M | hit |
| 15 | Mickey van der Hart GK | 23 | Eredivisie | 100 | €700k | €364k | €850k | +21% | Eredivisie | — | miss |
| 16 | Zivko Zivkovic GK | 28 | Super League 1 | 100 | €900k | €469k | €700k | -22% | Super League 1 | — | miss |
| 17 | Ricky van Wolfswinkel ST | 28 | Eredivisie | 100 | €3.5M | €1.7M | €2.5M | -29% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 18 | Ozan Tufan CM | 22 | Super Lig | 100 | €5.0M | €2.9M | €1.5M | -70% | Super Lig | — | miss |
| 19 | Kenny McLean CM | 26 | Scottish Premiership | 100 | €600k | €427k | €1.5M | +150% | left covered leagues / no data | €230k | hit |
| 20 | Mijo Caktas AM | 25 | Premier Liga | 99 | €3.0M | €1.4M | €2.8M | -7% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 21 | Joe Lewis GK | 30 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €400k | €187k | €500k | +25% | Scottish Premiership | — | hit |
| 22 | Anthony Moris GK | 27 | Jupiler Pro League | 99 | €600k | €319k | €400k | -33% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 23 | Dimitri Foulquier RB | 24 | Laliga | 99 | €2.0M | €930k | €3.5M | +75% | Laliga | €2.0M | hit |
| 24 | Christie Elliott RB | 26 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €250k | €130k | €300k | +20% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 25 | Andrey Sinitsyn GK | 29 | Premier Liga | 99 | €1.0M | €404k | €1.2M | +20% | Premier Liga | — | miss |
| 26 | Cauê Silva DM | 28 | Liga Portugal | 99 | €1.0M | €513k | €500k | -50% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 27 | Diawandou Diagne DM | 23 | Jupiler Pro League | 99 | €700k | €372k | €300k | -57% | Jupiler Pro League | — | miss |
| 28 | Luís Machado LW | 25 | Liga Portugal | 99 | €600k | €303k | €500k | -17% | Liga Portugal | — | miss |
| 29 | Chrysovalantis Kozoronis CM | 25 | Super League 1 | 99 | €600k | €319k | €200k | -67% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 30 | Oleksandr Svatok CB | 23 | Premier Liga | 99 | €700k | €388k | €850k | +21% | Premier Liga | €375k | miss |
| 31 | Alhassane Keita ST | 25 | Liga Portugal | 99 | €600k | €312k | €600k | +0% | Liga Portugal | — | miss |
| 32 | Wes Foderingham GK | 27 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €450k | €343k | €600k | +33% | Scottish Premiership | — | hit |
| 33 | Luca Antei CB | 25 | Serie A | 99 | €1.0M | €592k | €1.0M | +0% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 34 | Bart Schenkeveld CB | 26 | Eredivisie | 99 | €600k | €313k | €800k | +33% | left covered leagues / no data | — | hit |
| 35 | Marcus Haber ST | 29 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €250k | €133k | €250k | +0% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 36 | Hiroki Sakai RB | 27 | Ligue 1 | 99 | €2.5M | €1.4M | €8.0M | +220% | Ligue 1 | — | hit |
| 37 | Sergiy Gryn LW | 23 | Premier Liga | 99 | €500k | €268k | €300k | -40% | Premier Liga | — | miss |
| 38 | Unai López CM | 22 | Laliga | 99 | €2.0M | €1.1M | €1.5M | -25% | Laliga | — | miss |
| 39 | Danny Williams LM | 29 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €250k | €117k | €250k | +0% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 40 | Rubén Pardo CM | 25 | Laliga | 99 | €4.0M | €2.4M | €4.0M | +0% | Laliga | — | miss |
| 41 | Georgiy Zotov RB | 28 | Premier Liga | 99 | €600k | €299k | €1.2M | +100% | Premier Liga | — | hit |
| 42 | André Rømer DM | 24 | Superliga | 99 | €500k | €320k | €600k | +20% | Superliga | — | miss |
| 43 | Roman Emeljanov DM | 25 | Premier Liga | 99 | €3.5M | €1.8M | €3.0M | -14% | Premier Liga | — | miss |
| 44 | Kepa Arrizabalaga GK | 23 | Laliga | 99 | €8.0M | €7.2M | €60.0M | +650% | Premier League | €80.0M | hit |
| 45 | Ander Capa RB | 25 | Laliga | 99 | €5.0M | €3.2M | €3.0M | -40% | Laliga | — | miss |
| 46 | Christos Donis DM | 23 | Super League 1 | 99 | €500k | €286k | €700k | +40% | Super League 1 | — | hit |
| 47 | Ladislav Krejci LM | 25 | Serie A | 99 | €5.0M | €2.8M | €2.8M | -45% | Serie A | — | miss |
| 48 | Danny Bakker CB | 23 | Eredivisie | 99 | €550k | €297k | €1.0M | +82% | Eredivisie | — | hit |
| 49 | Volkan Babacan GK | 29 | Super Lig | 99 | €6.0M | €2.6M | €600k | -90% | Super Lig | — | miss |
| 50 | Pato Rodríguez LW | 27 | Super League 1 | 99 | €1.0M | €456k | €250k | -75% | Liga Portugal | — | miss |