What would MoneyballAI have found in 2020?
The top 50 players by Bargain Index on 1 July of that year, using only information available on that date (no look-ahead), and what actually happened over the next ~2 years. All picks are shown — successes and failures.
33 hits (market value up ≥ 25% within ~2 years) · 17 misses · 0 unknown. A “miss” can still have been a sensible purchase; “hit” is judged against market value, not our own estimates.
| # | Player | Age then | League then | BI | Value then | Est. acquisition then | Value ~2y later | Change | Next league | Sold for | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matheus Reis LB | 25 | Liga Portugal | 100 | €650k | €319k | €8.0M | +1131% | Liga Portugal | — | hit |
| 2 | Joe Aribo CM | 24 | Scottish Premiership | 100 | €1.0M | €928k | €10.0M | +900% | Scottish Premiership | — | hit |
| 3 | Yangel Herrera CM | 23 | Laliga | 100 | €9.0M | €7.8M | €14.0M | +56% | Laliga | — | hit |
| 4 | Marko Kolar ST | 25 | Eredivisie | 100 | €325k | €130k | €550k | +69% | left covered leagues / no data | — | hit |
| 5 | Carlos Júnior RW | 25 | Liga Portugal | 100 | €650k | €252k | €5.0M | +669% | left covered leagues / no data | €2.5M | hit |
| 6 | Jack McMillan RB | 23 | Scottish Premiership | 100 | €300k | €152k | €275k | -8% | Scottish Premiership | — | miss |
| 7 | Greg Leigh LB | 26 | Scottish Premiership | 100 | €350k | €137k | €300k | -14% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 8 | Ilkay Durmus RW | 26 | Scottish Premiership | 100 | €300k | €123k | €900k | +200% | left covered leagues / no data | — | hit |
| 9 | Oleg Ilyin RM | 23 | Premier Liga | 100 | €325k | €136k | €500k | +54% | Premier Liga | — | hit |
| 10 | Mads Thychosen RB | 23 | Superliga | 100 | €550k | €334k | €1.0M | +82% | Superliga | — | hit |
| 11 | Nikola Katic CB | 24 | Scottish Premiership | 100 | €1.6M | €1.1M | €850k | -47% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 12 | Ousseynou Ba CB | 25 | Super League 1 | 100 | €400k | €318k | €4.5M | +1025% | Super League 1 | — | hit |
| 13 | China RW | 24 | Premier Liga | 100 | €325k | €169k | €250k | -23% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 14 | Rober Correa RB | 28 | Laliga | 100 | €475k | €259k | €1.2M | +153% | left covered leagues / no data | — | hit |
| 15 | Adil Nabi AM | 26 | Super League 1 | 100 | €350k | €173k | €500k | +43% | Super League 1 | — | hit |
| 16 | Melker Hallberg CM | 25 | Scottish Premiership | 100 | €300k | €150k | €550k | +83% | Scottish Premiership | — | hit |
| 17 | Jason Naismith RB | 26 | Scottish Premiership | 100 | €325k | €152k | €325k | +0% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 18 | Jon Gallagher RB | 24 | Scottish Premiership | 100 | €300k | €206k | €500k | +67% | left covered leagues / no data | €205k | hit |
| 19 | Rubén Vargas LW | 22 | Bundesliga | 99 | €9.0M | €8.4M | €8.0M | -11% | Bundesliga | — | miss |
| 20 | Oliver Abildgaard DM | 24 | Premier Liga | 99 | €475k | €216k | €7.0M | +1374% | Premier Liga | — | hit |
| 21 | Mickel Miller LW | 25 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €300k | €137k | €300k | +0% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 22 | Jorge Silva RB | 24 | Liga Portugal | 99 | €300k | €166k | €400k | +33% | Liga Portugal | — | hit |
| 23 | Uche Ikpeazu ST | 25 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €300k | €151k | €800k | +167% | left covered leagues / no data | — | hit |
| 24 | Mikey Devlin CB | 27 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €475k | €225k | €250k | -47% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 25 | Zak Vyner CB | 23 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €400k | €225k | €1.8M | +350% | left covered leagues / no data | — | hit |
| 26 | Jake Mulraney LM | 24 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €325k | €124k | €600k | +85% | left covered leagues / no data | — | hit |
| 27 | Eneko Capilla AM | 25 | Super League 1 | 99 | €325k | €172k | €350k | +8% | Super League 1 | — | miss |
| 28 | Aaron McGowan RB | 24 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €300k | €154k | €325k | +8% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 29 | George Baldock RB | 27 | Premier League | 99 | €4.8M | €3.7M | €4.0M | -17% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 30 | Matty Kennedy LW | 26 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €350k | €169k | €450k | +29% | Scottish Premiership | — | hit |
| 31 | James Justin RB | 22 | Premier League | 99 | €3.6M | €3.3M | €25.0M | +594% | Premier League | — | hit |
| 32 | Danny Bejarano DM | 27 | Super League 1 | 99 | €350k | €146k | €400k | +14% | Super League 1 | — | miss |
| 33 | Yevgeniy Smyrnyi CM | 22 | Premier Liga | 99 | €300k | €214k | €400k | +33% | Premier Liga | — | hit |
| 34 | Marvin Schwäbe GK | 25 | Superliga | 99 | €650k | €317k | €4.0M | +515% | Bundesliga | — | hit |
| 35 | Oguz Ceylan RB | 30 | Super Lig | 99 | €325k | €142k | €425k | +31% | left covered leagues / no data | — | hit |
| 36 | David Carmo CB | 21 | Liga Portugal | 99 | €900k | €860k | €15.0M | +1567% | Liga Portugal | — | hit |
| 37 | Lutsharel Geertruida RB | 20 | Eredivisie | 99 | €900k | €1.4M | €12.0M | +1233% | Eredivisie | — | hit |
| 38 | Stevie May ST | 28 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €325k | €145k | €375k | +15% | Scottish Premiership | — | miss |
| 39 | Jamie Walker LW | 27 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €300k | €122k | €400k | +33% | Scottish Premiership | — | hit |
| 40 | Vladyslav Shapoval LB | 25 | Premier Liga | 99 | €325k | €140k | €200k | -38% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 41 | Willyan Rocha CB | 25 | Liga Portugal | 99 | €325k | €206k | €1.5M | +362% | Liga Portugal | — | hit |
| 42 | Liam Grimshaw RB | 25 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €325k | €151k | €325k | +0% | Scottish Premiership | — | miss |
| 43 | Sean Clare RB | 24 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €275k | €123k | €350k | +27% | left covered leagues / no data | — | hit |
| 44 | Gaëtan Paquiez RB | 26 | Ligue 1 | 99 | €800k | €429k | €700k | -13% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 45 | Pep Biel AM | 24 | Superliga | 99 | €1.2M | €705k | €6.0M | +400% | Superliga | — | hit |
| 46 | Dejan Kulusevski AM | 20 | Serie A | 99 | €31.5M | €28.6M | €40.0M | +27% | Premier League | — | hit |
| 47 | Niko Hämäläinen LB | 23 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €325k | €196k | €500k | +54% | left covered leagues / no data | — | hit |
| 48 | Jon Guthrie CB | 28 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €300k | €164k | €500k | +67% | left covered leagues / no data | — | hit |
| 49 | Antonis Dentakis RB | 25 | Super League 1 | 98 | €300k | €154k | €300k | +0% | Super League 1 | — | miss |
| 50 | Christian Doidge ST | 28 | Scottish Premiership | 98 | €525k | €254k | €700k | +33% | Scottish Premiership | — | hit |